Widzew Łódź
vs
Pogon Szczecin
Garuda Lions Prediction: Widzew Łódź
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Widzew Łódź is the favourite, not a value bet.
Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin
| Probability | Widzew Łódź | Draw | Pogon Szczecin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32.4% | 28.2% | 39.4% |
| Market | 43.1% | 25.9% | 30.9% |
| Final | 40.5% | 26.5% | 33.0% |
| Edge | -2.7% | +0.6% | +2.1% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.23, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.8% per unit staked (our 40.5% × 2.23 − 1).
Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin match preview
Widzew Łódź faces Pogon Szczecin in an Ekstraklasa clash on November 7, 2026. According to our model, Widzew Łódź has a 40% chance of winning, while Pogon Szczecin's probability stands at 34%, with a 26% likelihood of a draw. The expected goals are 1.27 for Widzew Łódź and 1.42 for Pogon Szczecin, suggesting a competitive match. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1 in favor of Widzew Łódź.
In terms of recent form, Widzew Łódź has struggled, with their last six matches yielding one draw and five losses. Conversely, Pogon Szczecin is on a strong run, having won their last six matches. Additionally, our model indicates a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% probability that both teams will score, highlighting the potential for an engaging encounter.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Widzew Łódź and Pogon Szczecin expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.69
Widzew Łódź and Pogon Szczecin attack and defence ratings
Widzew Łódź
Pogon Szczecin
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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- Slask Wroclaw v Piast Gliwice — match page
- Gornik Zabrze v Wieczysta Kraków — match page
- Jagiellonia vs GKS Katowice
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Before and after this match
Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Widzew Łódź | 40.5% | 2.47 | -2.7% | 2.23 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.4% | 1.98 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.8% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.5% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 67.6% | 1.48 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Widzew Łódź | 40.5% |
| Draw | 26.5% | |
| Pogon Szczecin | 33.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 49.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.8% |
| No | 44.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 67.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 59.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Widzew Łódź win | 14.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.9% | |
| Loss | 67.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.5% |
| 1-2 | 8.7% | |
| 0-1 | 8.4% |
Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin stats
Widzew Łódź and Pogon Szczecin recent form
| Widzew Łódź |
LDDLDD |
| Pogon Szczecin |
LWWWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Widzew Łódź and Pogon Szczecin season so far
Widzew Łódź record
- They have won 1 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 13 matches.
- 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Pogon Szczecin record
- They have won 7 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-28 | Pogon Szczecin | Widzew Łódź | Ekstraklasa | 1-0 |
| 2025-12-02 | Pogon Szczecin | Widzew Łódź | Poland Cup | 0-1 |
| 2025-08-22 | Widzew Łódź | Pogon Szczecin | Ekstraklasa | 1-2 |
| 2025-02-22 | Widzew Łódź | Pogon Szczecin | Ekstraklasa | 0-4 |
| 2024-08-17 | Pogon Szczecin | Widzew Łódź | Ekstraklasa | 2-0 |
| 2023-12-16 | Widzew Łódź | Pogon Szczecin | Ekstraklasa | 1-2 |
| 2023-07-30 | Pogon Szczecin | Widzew Łódź | Ekstraklasa | 2-1 |
| 2023-01-28 | Widzew Łódź | Pogon Szczecin | Ekstraklasa | 3-3 |
| 2022-07-17 | Pogon Szczecin | Widzew Łódź | Ekstraklasa | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Widzew Łódź vs Pogon Szczecin odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 43.1%, draw 25.9%, away 30.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.11 | 3.65 | 3.01 |
| Bet365 | 2.15 | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| BetVictor | 2.15 | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| Betano | 2.18 | 3.55 | 3.05 |
| Betfair | 2.20 | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| Dafabet | 2.23 | 3.60 | 3.10 |
| Marathonbet | 2.09 | 3.65 | 2.99 |
| Pinnacle | 2.18 | 3.82 | 3.01 |
| SBO | 2.14 | 3.06 | 2.80 |
| William Hill | 2.15 | 3.50 | 2.90 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .