Motor Lublin
vs
Wisla Plock
Garuda Lions Prediction: Motor Lublin
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.85 vs 1.18.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Motor Lublin is the favourite, not a value bet.
Motor Lublin vs Wisla Plock overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Motor Lublin vs Wisla Plock
| Probability | Motor Lublin | Draw | Wisla Plock |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52.0% | 24.8% | 23.2% |
| Market | 47.8% | 25.5% | 26.8% |
| Final | 48.8% | 25.3% | 25.9% |
| Edge | +1.1% | -0.2% | -0.9% |
Why Motor Lublin
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.85 vs 1.18.
Best available price on the pick: 1.99, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -2.9% per unit staked (our 48.8% × 1.99 − 1).
Motor Lublin vs Wisla Plock match preview
Motor Lublin is projected to have a 49% chance of winning against Wisla Plock, with a likely scoreline of 2-1, occurring at a 10% probability. The expected goals for Motor Lublin stand at 1.85, while Wisla Plock is expected to score 1.18. Both teams have shown a tendency to score, with a 60% likelihood that both will find the net and a 58% chance of the match featuring over 2.5 goals.
In terms of recent form, Motor Lublin has recorded two wins, three draws, and one loss in their last six matches, while Wisla Plock has secured two wins, three losses, and one draw. The head-to-head record over the last six encounters favors Motor Lublin, who have achieved two wins compared to Wisla Plock's one, alongside three draws.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Motor Lublin and Wisla Plock expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.03
Motor Lublin and Wisla Plock attack and defence ratings
Motor Lublin
Wisla Plock
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
- Wisla Krakow vs Cracovia Krakow — team news & stats
- Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom — team news & stats
- Slask Wroclaw v Piast Gliwice — match page
- Gornik Zabrze v Wieczysta Kraków — match page
- Widzew Łódź v Pogon Szczecin — match page
- Jagiellonia vs GKS Katowice
- Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa
- Lech Poznan vs Zaglebie Lubin
Before and after this match
Motor Lublin vs Wisla Plock markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Motor Lublin | 48.8% | 2.05 | +1.1% | 1.99 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.4% | 1.71 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.5% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.7% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 48.0% | 2.08 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Motor Lublin | 48.8% |
| Draw | 25.3% | |
| Wisla Plock | 25.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 41.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.5% |
| No | 40.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 51.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Motor Lublin win | 30.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.9% | |
| Loss | 48.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.6% |
| 2-1 | 9.8% | |
| 2-0 | 8.2% |
Motor Lublin vs Wisla Plock stats
Motor Lublin and Wisla Plock recent form
| Motor Lublin |
WDDWWD |
| Wisla Plock |
DWLWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Motor Lublin and Wisla Plock season so far
Motor Lublin record
- They have won 4 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Wisla Plock record
- They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 12 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Motor Lublin vs Wisla Plock head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | Wisla Plock | Motor Lublin | Ekstraklasa | 0-4 |
| 2025-11-08 | Motor Lublin | Wisla Plock | Ekstraklasa | 1-1 |
| 2025-07-11 | Motor Lublin | Wisla Plock | Friendlies Clubs | 2-2 |
| 2025-01-10 | Motor Lublin | Wisla Plock | Friendlies Clubs | 2-1 |
| 2024-05-05 | Wisla Plock | Motor Lublin | I Liga | 1-0 |
| 2023-11-05 | Motor Lublin | Wisla Plock | I Liga | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Motor Lublin vs Wisla Plock odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 47.8%, draw 25.5%, away 26.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.94 | 3.68 | 3.42 |
| Bet365 | 1.90 | 3.60 | 3.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.87 | 3.60 | 3.50 |
| Betano | 1.98 | 3.60 | 3.50 |
| Betfair | 1.95 | 3.70 | 3.40 |
| Dafabet | 1.99 | 3.75 | 3.55 |
| Marathonbet | 1.92 | 3.68 | 3.40 |
| Pinnacle | 1.95 | 3.90 | 3.73 |
| SBO | 1.94 | 3.30 | 3.23 |
| William Hill | 1.91 | 3.60 | 3.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .