Gornik Zabrze
vs
Wieczysta Kraków
Garuda Lions Prediction: Gornik Zabrze
1 – 0 Predicted score · 13% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.83 vs 0.75.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Gornik Zabrze is the favourite, not a value bet.
Gornik Zabrze vs Wieczysta Kraków overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Gornik Zabrze vs Wieczysta Kraków
| Probability | Gornik Zabrze | Draw | Wieczysta Kraków |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 61.9% | 24.3% | 13.8% |
| Market | 58.9% | 22.6% | 18.5% |
| Final | 59.6% | 23.0% | 17.4% |
| Edge | +0.8% | +0.4% | -1.2% |
Why Gornik Zabrze
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.83 vs 0.75.
Best available price on the pick: 1.62, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.4% per unit staked (our 59.6% × 1.62 − 1).
Gornik Zabrze vs Wieczysta Kraków match preview
Gornik Zabrze faces Wieczysta Kraków in an Ekstraklasa match with Gornik Zabrze holding a 62% probability of winning according to our model. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 13% chance of occurring. Gornik Zabrze has shown a recent form of D-D-D-D-W-D, while Wieczysta Kraków has struggled with L-L-L-L-W-D.
The expected goals for Gornik Zabrze stand at 1.82, compared to Wieczysta Kraków's 0.75. There is a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals being scored, and both teams have a 45% chance of scoring. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Gornik Zabrze and Wieczysta Kraków expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.58
Gornik Zabrze and Wieczysta Kraków attack and defence ratings
Gornik Zabrze
Wieczysta Kraków
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
- Motor Lublin vs Wisla Plock — team news & stats
- Wisla Krakow vs Cracovia Krakow — team news & stats
- Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom — team news & stats
- Slask Wroclaw v Piast Gliwice — match page
- Widzew Łódź v Pogon Szczecin — match page
- Jagiellonia vs GKS Katowice
- Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa
- Lech Poznan vs Zaglebie Lubin
Before and after this match
Gornik Zabrze vs Wieczysta Kraków markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gornik Zabrze | 59.6% | 1.68 | +0.8% | 1.62 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 52.4% | 1.91 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 54.6% | 1.83 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.6% | 1.21 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 38.1% | 2.63 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gornik Zabrze | 59.6% |
| Draw | 23.0% | |
| Wieczysta Kraków | 17.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 52.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45.4% |
| No | 54.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 40.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Gornik Zabrze win | 37.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.8% | |
| Loss | 38.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 12.8% |
| 2-0 | 12.7% | |
| 1-1 | 11.5% |
Gornik Zabrze vs Wieczysta Kraków stats
Gornik Zabrze and Wieczysta Kraków recent form
| Gornik Zabrze |
DDDDWD |
| Wieczysta Kraków |
LLLLWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Gornik Zabrze and Wieczysta Kraków season so far
Gornik Zabrze record
- They have won 8 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Wieczysta Kraków record
- They have won 2 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 13 matches.
Gornik Zabrze vs Wieczysta Kraków head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Gornik Zabrze vs Wieczysta Kraków odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 58.9%, draw 22.6%, away 18.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.55 | 4.25 | 5.01 |
| Bet365 | 1.60 | 3.90 | 4.75 |
| BetVictor | 1.55 | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| Betano | 1.62 | 4.00 | 4.90 |
| Betfair | 1.57 | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.62 | 4.30 | 5.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.53 | 4.25 | 5.05 |
| Pinnacle | 1.58 | 4.27 | 5.21 |
| SBO | 1.52 | 3.74 | 4.52 |
| William Hill | 1.60 | 3.90 | 4.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .