Gornik Zabrze
vs
Legia Warszawa
Garuda Lions Prediction: Gornik Zabrze
1 – 0 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Gornik Zabrze is the favourite, not a value bet.
Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa
| Probability | Gornik Zabrze | Draw | Legia Warszawa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41.0% | 28.4% | 30.5% |
| Market | 44.5% | 27.4% | 28.1% |
| Final | 43.6% | 27.7% | 28.7% |
| Edge | -0.9% | +0.3% | +0.6% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.38, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +3.9% per unit staked (our 43.6% × 2.38 − 1).
Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa match preview
Gornik Zabrze faces Legia Warszawa in an Ekstraklasa match with kickoff set for October 31, 2026. The probabilities from our model indicate Gornik Zabrze has a 39% chance of winning, while Legia Warszawa stands at 33%, and a draw is estimated at 28%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0 in favor of Gornik Zabrze, occurring at a rate of 9%. Expected goals for Gornik Zabrze are 1.29, slightly ahead of Legia Warszawa's 1.25.
In terms of recent form, Gornik Zabrze has recorded two wins and three draws in their last five matches, while Legia Warszawa has three wins, two draws, and one loss in the same span. The last two encounters between the teams show Gornik Zabrze with one win and one draw against Legia Warszawa, who have yet to secure a victory. The confidence grade for this matchup is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Gornik Zabrze and Legia Warszawa expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.64
Gornik Zabrze and Legia Warszawa attack and defence ratings
Gornik Zabrze
Legia Warszawa
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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Before and after this match
Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gornik Zabrze | 43.6% | 2.29 | -0.9% | 2.38 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 50.9% | 1.97 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.6% | 1.83 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.3% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 59.0% | 1.70 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gornik Zabrze | 43.6% |
| Draw | 27.7% | |
| Legia Warszawa | 28.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 50.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.6% |
| No | 45.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 56.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Gornik Zabrze win | 20.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.8% | |
| Loss | 59.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.6% |
| 1-0 | 9.0% | |
| 2-1 | 8.8% |
Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa stats
Gornik Zabrze and Legia Warszawa recent form
| Gornik Zabrze |
DDWDWW |
| Legia Warszawa |
LDWWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Gornik Zabrze and Legia Warszawa season so far
Gornik Zabrze record
- They have won 8 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Legia Warszawa record
- They have won 6 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | Legia Warszawa | Gornik Zabrze | Ekstraklasa | 1-1 |
| 2025-10-05 | Gornik Zabrze | Legia Warszawa | Ekstraklasa | 3-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Gornik Zabrze vs Legia Warszawa odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 44.5%, draw 27.4%, away 28.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.07 | 3.40 | 3.30 |
| BetVictor | 2.05 | 3.30 | 3.30 |
| Betano | 2.15 | 3.35 | 3.30 |
| Betfair | 2.38 | 3.30 | 2.88 |
| Dafabet | 2.15 | 3.45 | 3.40 |
| Marathonbet | 2.05 | 3.40 | 3.28 |
| Pinnacle | 2.09 | 3.58 | 3.34 |
| William Hill | 2.05 | 3.30 | 3.25 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
5 snapshots recorded, from .