Legia Warszawa
vs
Raków Częstochowa
Garuda Lions Prediction: Legia Warszawa
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.25 vs 1.03.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa
| Probability | Legia Warszawa | Draw | Raków Częstochowa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 64.0% | 20.8% | 15.2% |
| Market | 49.6% | 25.2% | 25.3% |
| Final | 53.2% | 24.1% | 22.8% |
| Edge | +3.6% | -1.1% | -2.5% |
Why Legia Warszawa
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.25 vs 1.03.
- The market prices Legia Warszawa below our published probability: +3.6 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.93, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +2.6% per unit staked (our 53.2% × 1.93 − 1).
Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa match preview
Legia Warszawa hosts Raków Częstochowa in an Ekstraklasa clash where the home side has a 53% probability of winning, while a draw stands at 24% and Raków at 22%. The expected goals for Legia are 2.25 compared to Raków's 1.03, indicating a strong attacking performance anticipated from the hosts. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 2-1, with a 10% likelihood.
In terms of recent form, Legia Warszawa has recorded two draws, a loss, and two wins in their last five matches, while Raków Częstochowa has seen a mix of results with two wins, a draw, and two losses. Notably, in their last two encounters, neither team has secured a victory, resulting in two draws. The model suggests a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% probability that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Legia Warszawa and Raków Częstochowa expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.28
Legia Warszawa and Raków Częstochowa attack and defence ratings
Legia Warszawa
Raków Częstochowa
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
- Motor Lublin vs Wisla Plock — team news & stats
- Wisla Krakow vs Cracovia Krakow — team news & stats
- Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom — team news & stats
- Slask Wroclaw v Piast Gliwice — match page
- Gornik Zabrze v Wieczysta Kraków — match page
- Widzew Łódź v Pogon Szczecin — match page
- Jagiellonia vs GKS Katowice
- Lech Poznan vs Zaglebie Lubin
Before and after this match
Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Legia Warszawa | 53.2% | 1.88 | +3.6% | 1.93 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.6% | 1.57 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.4% | 1.71 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.2% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Legia Warszawa win | 41.9% | 2.38 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Legia Warszawa | 53.2% |
| Draw | 24.1% | |
| Raków Częstochowa | 22.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 36.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.4% |
| No | 41.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 46.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Legia Warszawa win | 41.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.0% | |
| Loss | 36.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.8% |
| 1-1 | 9.6% | |
| 2-0 | 9.5% |
Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa stats
Legia Warszawa and Raków Częstochowa recent form
| Legia Warszawa |
DLDWWD |
| Raków Częstochowa |
WDLWLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Legia Warszawa and Raków Częstochowa season so far
Legia Warszawa record
- They have won 6 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Raków Częstochowa record
- They have won 2 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-22 | Legia Warszawa | Raków Częstochowa | Ekstraklasa | 1-1 |
| 2025-09-20 | Raków Częstochowa | Legia Warszawa | Ekstraklasa | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 49.6%, draw 25.2%, away 25.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.86 | 3.66 | 3.73 |
| Bet365 | 1.83 | 3.70 | 3.60 |
| BetVictor | 1.85 | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| Betano | 1.93 | 3.65 | 3.60 |
| Betfair | 1.91 | 3.75 | 3.75 |
| Dafabet | 1.93 | 3.85 | 3.70 |
| Marathonbet | 1.84 | 3.66 | 3.72 |
| Pinnacle | 1.90 | 3.81 | 3.75 |
| SBO | 1.86 | 3.25 | 3.28 |
| William Hill | 1.85 | 3.50 | 3.60 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .