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Poland Cup · Full time ·Round of 32

Motor Lublin vs Raków Częstochowa

1 – 1 Full time

11′E. Otieno
18′N. Zatterstrom
51′M. Ndiaye
55′O. Repka
61′E. OtienoJ. Jendryka
61′O. KwiatkowskiL. Diaby-Fadiga
71′Fabio RonaldoM. Aiko
71′Rony LopesKikis
74′B. Bereszynski
78′T. SantosK. Lukoszek
82′M. EmreliA. Basse
82′N. ZatterstromT. Pienko
85′F. LubereckiP. Meyer
85′M. NdiayeM. Bartos
90′B. Bereszynski
90′L. Diaby-Fadiga
91′K. TrelowskiT. Karic
91′K. CzubakA. Tall
120′L. Diaby-Fadiga
120′T. Pienko
120′K. Lukoszek
120′V. Kochergin

Motor Lublin Arena, LublinReferee: P. Raczkowski

Motor Lublin 41%
Draw 26%
Raków Częstochowa 33%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Motor Lublin vs Raków Częstochowa overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Motor Lublin vs Raków Częstochowa

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityMotor LublinDrawRaków Częstochowa
Model48.9%22.3%28.8%
Market38.1%26.9%35.0%
Final40.8%25.8%33.5%
Edge+2.7%-1.2%-1.5%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Motor Lublin

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.15 vs 1.64.
  • The market prices Motor Lublin below our published probability: +2.7 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Motor Lublin ↓ / Raków Częstoch → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 9% 7% 2 5% 9% 7% 3 6% 5% 4+ 5% 4%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 90%
3+ goals 73%
No goals 3%

Motor Lublin and Raków Częstochowa expected goals

Motor Lublin 2.15
Raków Częstochowa 1.64

Total expected goals: 3.79

Motor Lublin and Raków Częstochowa attack and defence ratings

Motor Lublin

Attack 1.08 +8%
Defence 1.12 +12%

Raków Częstochowa

Attack 0.95 -5%
Defence 1.35 +35%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Motor Lublin vs Raków Częstochowa: result vs prediction

Motor Lublin 1 – 1 Raków Częstochowa

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Round of 32 fixtures

Poland Cup

Before and after this match

Motor Lublin vs Raków Częstochowa markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Motor Lublin 40.8% 2.45 +2.7% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 72.9% 1.37 — —
Both teams to score Yes 72.0% 1.39 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 74.2% 1.35 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 51.1% 1.96 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Motor Lublin40.8%
Draw25.8%
Raków Częstochowa33.5%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.572.9%
Under 2.527.1%
Both teams to scoreYes72.0%
No28.0%
Double chance1X (home or draw)66.5%
12 (either side)74.2%
X2 (draw or away)59.2%
Handicap -1Motor Lublin win29.4%
Push (exactly one goal)19.4%
Loss51.1%
Correct score (top 3)1-18.8%
2-18.6%
2-27.0%

Motor Lublin vs Raków Częstochowa stats

Motor Lublin and Raków Częstochowa recent form

newest first
Motor Lublin DWWDLL
Raków Częstochowa LWLLLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Motor Lublin vs Raków Częstochowa head-to-head

Last 6 meetings

0Motor Lublin wins 2Draws 4Raków Częstochowa wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-09-11Raków CzęstochowaMotor LublinEkstraklasa2-1
2026-04-12Motor LublinRaków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa1-1
2025-10-05Raków CzęstochowaMotor LublinEkstraklasa2-0
2024-12-07Raków CzęstochowaMotor LublinEkstraklasa2-2
2024-07-21Motor LublinRaków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa0-2
2023-03-01Motor LublinRaków CzęstochowaCup0-3

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Motor Lublin vs Raków Częstochowa odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 38.1%, draw 26.9%, away 35.0%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.35 3.26 2.56
Bet365 2.30 3.40 2.60
BetVictor 2.38 3.40 2.60
Betano 2.42 3.55 2.67
Betfair 2.40 3.50 2.50
Dafabet 2.41 3.45 2.75
Marathonbet 2.35 3.26 2.56
Pinnacle 2.43 3.36 2.71
SBO 2.29 3.17 2.51
William Hill 2.40 3.10 2.62

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.39 ▼ -0.01
X 3.38 ▼ -0.02
2 2.60 —

2 snapshots recorded, from .