Motor Lublin
vs
Zaglebie Lubin
Garuda Lions Prediction: Motor Lublin
2 β 1 Predicted score Β· 10% model probability
Motor Lublin vs Zaglebie Lubin overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Motor Lublin vs Zaglebie Lubin
| Probability | Motor Lublin | Draw | Zaglebie Lubin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53.4% | 24.2% | 22.4% |
| Market | 44.4% | 26.2% | 29.3% |
| Final | 46.7% | 25.7% | 27.6% |
| Edge | +9.0% | -2.1% | -6.9% |
Why Motor Lublin
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.93 vs 1.19.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Motor Lublin below the model: +9.0 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.09, recorded β the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Motor Lublin vs Zaglebie Lubin match preview
Motor Lublin faces Zaglebie Lubin in an Ekstraklasa match with a kickoff scheduled for October 23, 2026. According to our model, Motor Lublin has a 49% chance of winning, while Zaglebie Lubin stands at 24%, and a draw is predicted at 26%. The expected goals for Motor Lublin is 1.72, compared to 1.16 for Zaglebie Lubin. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Motor Lublin, occurring with a 10% probability.
Recent form shows Motor Lublin with a record of W-D-L-L-W-L, while Zaglebie Lubin has L-L-W-W-D-L. In their last two encounters, Motor Lublin has secured 1 win and 1 draw against Zaglebie Lubin, who has not won any of those matches. The model indicates a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance for both teams to score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Motor Lublin and Zaglebie Lubin expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.12
Motor Lublin and Zaglebie Lubin attack and defence ratings
Motor Lublin
Zaglebie Lubin
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Motor Lublin vs Zaglebie Lubin markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Motor Lublin | 46.7% | 2.14 | +9.0% | 2.09 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.3% | 1.66 | β | β |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.6% | 1.65 | β | β |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.3% | 1.35 | β | β |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 46.6% | 2.15 | β | β |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Motor Lublin | 46.7% |
| Draw | 25.7% | |
| Zaglebie Lubin | 27.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 39.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.6% |
| No | 39.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 53.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Motor Lublin win | 31.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.8% | |
| Loss | 46.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.2% |
| 2-1 | 9.8% | |
| 2-0 | 8.2% |
Motor Lublin vs Zaglebie Lubin stats
Motor Lublin and Zaglebie Lubin recent form
| Motor Lublin |
WWDLLW |
| Zaglebie Lubin |
LLWWDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Motor Lublin and Zaglebie Lubin season so far
Motor Lublin record
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Zaglebie Lubin record
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- 54% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Motor Lublin vs Zaglebie Lubin head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-20 | Motor Lublin | Zaglebie Lubin | Ekstraklasa | 1-0 |
| 2025-09-21 | Zaglebie Lubin | Motor Lublin | Ekstraklasa | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Motor Lublin vs Zaglebie Lubin odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 44.4%, draw 26.2%, away 29.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.09 | 3.52 | 3.16 |
| Marathonbet | 2.07 | 3.52 | 3.14 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .