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Poland Cup · Full time ·Round of 32

Polonia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce

2 – 1 Full time

24′S. Rubezic
27′M. Pieczek
38′D. Gnaase
41′D. Olafsson
46′M. AmeyawM. Fassbender
46′M. StepinskiD. Bak
48′K. Kostorz
51′D. Bak
64′P. HellebrandNono
66′J. Budnicki
68′D. VegaK. Tabara
68′K. KostorzG. Barkovskiy
73′M. RemacleS. Gustafson
76′I. DurmusE. Terpilowski
76′S. KowalczykS. Skrabb
78′G. Barkovskiy
80′M. PieczekD. Blanik
80′M. KuuskP. Janasik

Stadion Polonii, WarsawReferee: J. Przybyl

Polonia Warszawa 33%
Draw 28%
Korona Kielce 39%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Polonia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Polonia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityPolonia WarszawaDrawKorona Kielce
Model48.8%27.9%23.3%
Market27.4%28.3%44.3%
Final32.7%28.2%39.1%
Edge+5.3%-0.1%-5.3%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Polonia Warsza ↓ / Korona Kielce → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 9% 1 11% 13% 2 9% 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 91%
2+ goals 73%
3+ goals 47%
No goals 9%

Polonia Warszawa and Korona Kielce expected goals

Polonia Warszawa 1.55
Korona Kielce 1.00

Total expected goals: 2.55

Polonia Warszawa and Korona Kielce attack and defence ratings

Polonia Warszawa

Attack 1.02 +2%
Defence 0.80 -20%

Korona Kielce

Attack 0.82 -18%
Defence 1.04 +4%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Polonia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce: result vs prediction

Polonia Warszawa 2 – 1 Korona Kielce

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Round of 32 fixtures

Poland Cup

Before and after this match

Polonia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Korona Kielce 39.1% 2.56 -5.3% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 53.2% 1.88 — —
Both teams to score Yes 51.0% 1.96 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 71.8% 1.39 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 76.7% 1.30 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Polonia Warszawa32.7%
Draw28.2%
Korona Kielce39.1%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.546.8%
Under 2.553.2%
Both teams to scoreYes51.0%
No49.0%
Double chance1X (home or draw)60.9%
12 (either side)71.8%
X2 (draw or away)67.3%
Handicap -1Korona Kielce win8.8%
Push (exactly one goal)14.5%
Loss76.7%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.3%
1-010.9%
2-19.4%

Polonia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce stats

Polonia Warszawa and Korona Kielce recent form

newest first
Polonia Warszawa DWWWDL
Korona Kielce WLLWLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Polonia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce head-to-head

Last 1 meetings

0Polonia Warszawa wins 1Draws 0Korona Kielce wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2025-06-28Korona KielcePolonia WarszawaFriendlies Clubs0-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Polonia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 27.4%, draw 28.3%, away 44.3%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 3.37 3.12 2.03
Bet365 3.25 3.25 2.00
BetVictor 3.30 3.25 2.05
Betano 3.25 3.35 2.07
Betfair 3.30 3.40 1.95
Dafabet 3.40 3.35 2.09
Marathonbet 3.28 3.12 2.01
Pinnacle 3.46 3.14 2.09
SBO 3.02 3.08 2.02
William Hill 3.30 3.00 2.05

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 3.30 ▼ -0.07
X 3.20 ▼ -0.23
2 2.04 ▲ +0.12

3 snapshots recorded, from .