ŁKS Łódź
vs
Polonia Warszawa
Garuda Lions Prediction: ŁKS Łódź
1 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — ŁKS Łódź is the favourite, not a value bet.
ŁKS Łódź vs Polonia Warszawa overview
Garuda Lions analysis: ŁKS Łódź vs Polonia Warszawa
| Probability | ŁKS Łódź | Draw | Polonia Warszawa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33.7% | 33.3% | 33.0% |
| Market | 37.2% | 27.0% | 35.8% |
| Final | 36.3% | 28.6% | 35.1% |
| Edge | -0.9% | +1.6% | -0.7% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.55, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.3% per unit staked (our 36.3% × 2.55 − 1).
ŁKS Łódź vs Polonia Warszawa match preview
ŁKS Łódź and Polonia Warszawa are set to face off in an I Liga match with both teams showing a competitive edge in their recent performances. ŁKS Łódź has recorded two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches, while Polonia Warszawa has a slightly better record with three wins, two draws, and one loss. The expected goals suggest a close contest, with ŁKS Łódź at 1.03 and Polonia Warszawa at 0.98.
According to our model, the probabilities for a win are evenly split, with both teams at 36% and a draw at 29%. The most likely scoreline is predicted to be 1-0 in favor of ŁKS Łódź, which has a 12% chance of occurring. Additionally, there is a 42% likelihood that both teams will score, and a 33% chance of over 2.5 goals in the match.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
ŁKS Łódź and Polonia Warszawa expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.03
ŁKS Łódź and Polonia Warszawa attack and defence ratings
ŁKS Łódź
Polonia Warszawa
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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- Lechia Gdansk vs Unia Skierniewice — team news & stats
- Podbeskidzie v Warta Poznań — match page
- Polonia Bytom vs Odra Opole — team news & stats
- Stal Rzeszów v Puszcza Niepołomice — match page
- Chrobry Głogów vs Arka Gdynia
- Pogoń Siedlce vs Ruch Chorzów
Before and after this match
ŁKS Łódź vs Polonia Warszawa markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ŁKS Łódź | 36.3% | 2.75 | -0.9% | 2.55 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 66.9% | 1.49 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 58.1% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.4% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 66.3% | 1.51 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ŁKS Łódź | 36.3% |
| Draw | 28.6% | |
| Polonia Warszawa | 35.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 33.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 66.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41.9% |
| No | 58.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 64.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 63.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | ŁKS Łódź win | 13.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.3% | |
| Loss | 66.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.9% |
| 0-0 | 14.5% | |
| 1-0 | 12.1% |
ŁKS Łódź vs Polonia Warszawa stats
ŁKS Łódź and Polonia Warszawa recent form
| ŁKS Łódź |
WWLLWD |
| Polonia Warszawa |
WDWWWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
ŁKS Łódź and Polonia Warszawa season so far
ŁKS Łódź record
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
Polonia Warszawa record
- They have won 6 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
ŁKS Łódź vs Polonia Warszawa head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-09 | Polonia Warszawa | ŁKS Łódź | I Liga | 0-1 |
| 2025-08-23 | ŁKS Łódź | Polonia Warszawa | I Liga | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
ŁKS Łódź vs Polonia Warszawa odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 37.2%, draw 27.0%, away 35.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.35 | 3.34 | 2.54 |
| Bet365 | 2.50 | 3.20 | 2.55 |
| BetVictor | 2.45 | 3.40 | 2.55 |
| Betano | 2.55 | 3.40 | 2.55 |
| Betfair | 2.45 | 3.40 | 2.50 |
| Dafabet | 2.50 | 3.45 | 2.55 |
| Marathonbet | 2.35 | 3.34 | 2.54 |
| Pinnacle | 2.44 | 3.53 | 2.68 |
| SBO | 2.39 | 3.02 | 2.36 |
| William Hill | 2.40 | 3.30 | 2.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
5 snapshots recorded, from .