Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
vs
Stal Mielec
Garuda Lions Prediction: Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
2 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.29 vs 0.98.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Stal Mielec overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Stal Mielec
| Probability | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | Draw | Stal Mielec |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 66.0% | 20.2% | 13.8% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 66.0% | 20.2% | 13.8% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.29 vs 0.98.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Stal Mielec match preview
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki faces Stal Mielec in an I Liga matchup with a projected probability of 68% for a home victory, while a draw stands at 19% and an away win at 13%. The expected goals for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki is 2.52, compared to Stal Mielec's 1.07, indicating a strong offensive advantage for the home side. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1, occurring with a 9% likelihood.
In terms of recent form, Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki has recorded a mixed set of results with two wins and three losses in their last five matches, while Stal Mielec has one win, three losses, and one draw in the same period. The model suggests a high probability of over 2.5 goals at 70% and both teams scoring at 61%. The confidence grade for this forecast is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki and Stal Mielec expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.27
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki and Stal Mielec attack and defence ratings
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Stal Mielec
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Stal Mielec markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | 66.0% | 1.52 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.4% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.9% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 86.2% | 1.16 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki win | 43.9% | 2.28 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | 66.0% |
| Draw | 20.2% | |
| Stal Mielec | 13.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 36.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.9% |
| No | 43.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 86.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 34.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki win | 43.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.0% | |
| Loss | 34.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 10.0% |
| 2-1 | 9.8% | |
| 1-1 | 9.4% |
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Stal Mielec stats
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki and Stal Mielec recent form
| Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki |
LWWLWL |
| Stal Mielec |
DLWLLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki and Stal Mielec season so far
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki record
- They have won 6 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Stal Mielec record
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Stal Mielec head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-06 | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | Stal Mielec | I Liga | 1-2 |
| 2025-09-19 | Stal Mielec | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | I Liga | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.