Pogoń Siedlce
vs
Ruch Chorzów
Garuda Lions Prediction: Ruch Chorzów
0 – 1 Predicted score · 12% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.64 vs 0.90.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Ruch Chorzów is the favourite, not a value bet.
Pogoń Siedlce vs Ruch Chorzów overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Pogoń Siedlce vs Ruch Chorzów
| Probability | Pogoń Siedlce | Draw | Ruch Chorzów |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 19.3% | 26.9% | 53.8% |
| Market | 22.7% | 25.5% | 51.8% |
| Final | 21.8% | 25.9% | 52.3% |
| Edge | -0.8% | +0.3% | +0.5% |
Why Ruch Chorzów
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.64 vs 0.90.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.78, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.9% per unit staked (our 52.3% × 1.78 − 1).
Pogoń Siedlce vs Ruch Chorzów match preview
Pogoń Siedlce faces Ruch Chorzów in their upcoming I Liga match, with the probabilities indicating a 23% chance of a home win for Pogoń, a 26% chance of a draw, and a 51% chance of an away victory for Ruch. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 0-1, occurring with a 12% probability. Expected goals suggest Pogoń will score 0.93, while Ruch is projected to net 1.50.
Recent form shows Pogoń Siedlce with two wins and three losses in their last six matches, while Ruch Chorzów has been more consistent, securing four wins and two draws. In their last two encounters, Pogoń has won both matches against Ruch, which may influence the dynamics of this fixture. The confidence grade for this prediction is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Pogoń Siedlce and Ruch Chorzów expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.54
Pogoń Siedlce and Ruch Chorzów attack and defence ratings
Pogoń Siedlce
Ruch Chorzów
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Stal Mielec
- Miedz Legnica v Nieciecza — match page
- Lechia Gdansk vs Unia Skierniewice — team news & stats
- Podbeskidzie v Warta Poznań — match page
- Polonia Bytom vs Odra Opole — team news & stats
- ŁKS Łódź vs Polonia Warszawa — team news & stats
- Stal Rzeszów v Puszcza Niepołomice — match page
- Chrobry Głogów vs Arka Gdynia
Before and after this match
Pogoń Siedlce vs Ruch Chorzów markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ruch Chorzów | 52.3% | 1.91 | +0.5% | 1.78 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 53.4% | 1.87 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 51.1% | 1.96 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 78.2% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 46.2% | 2.16 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Pogoń Siedlce | 21.8% |
| Draw | 25.9% | |
| Ruch Chorzów | 52.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 53.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48.9% |
| No | 51.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 47.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 78.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Ruch Chorzów win | 29.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.0% | |
| Loss | 46.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.8% |
| 0-1 | 11.8% | |
| 0-2 | 10.6% |
Pogoń Siedlce vs Ruch Chorzów stats
Pogoń Siedlce and Ruch Chorzów recent form
| Pogoń Siedlce |
LWLLLW |
| Ruch Chorzów |
WWWWDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Pogoń Siedlce and Ruch Chorzów season so far
Pogoń Siedlce record
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
Ruch Chorzów record
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Pogoń Siedlce vs Ruch Chorzów head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-13 | Pogoń Siedlce | Ruch Chorzów | I Liga | 2-1 |
| 2025-08-08 | Ruch Chorzów | Pogoń Siedlce | I Liga | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Pogoń Siedlce vs Ruch Chorzów odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 22.7%, draw 25.5%, away 51.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.97 | 3.55 | 1.75 |
| Bet365 | 4.00 | 3.60 | 1.73 |
| BetVictor | 4.20 | 3.50 | 1.75 |
| Betano | 4.05 | 3.65 | 1.78 |
| Betfair | 4.00 | 3.50 | 1.75 |
| Dafabet | 4.10 | 3.70 | 1.78 |
| Marathonbet | 3.88 | 3.55 | 1.73 |
| Pinnacle | 4.22 | 3.70 | 1.78 |
| William Hill | 4.00 | 3.40 | 1.75 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
5 snapshots recorded, from .