Pogoń Siedlce
vs
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Garuda Lions Prediction: Pogoń Siedlce
1 – 0 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Pogoń Siedlce is the favourite, not a value bet.
Pogoń Siedlce vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Pogoń Siedlce vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
| Probability | Pogoń Siedlce | Draw | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34.0% | 29.2% | 36.8% |
| Market | 42.7% | 27.0% | 30.3% |
| Final | 40.5% | 27.5% | 31.9% |
| Edge | -2.2% | +0.6% | +1.6% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.20, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -10.9% per unit staked (our 40.5% × 2.20 − 1).
Pogoń Siedlce vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki match preview
Pogoń Siedlce faces Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki in an I Liga match on November 8, 2026. The probabilities indicate a close contest, with Pogoń Siedlce at 37%, a draw at 28%, and Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki at 36%. The expected goals suggest a slight edge for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki at 1.36 compared to Pogoń Siedlce's 1.25, while the most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0 in favor of Pogoń Siedlce.
Recent form shows Pogoń Siedlce with a mixed record of L-W-L-L-L-W, while Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki has also struggled, recording L-L-L-W-W-L. In their last two head-to-head encounters, both teams have won once. The model indicates a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% probability that both teams will score, highlighting the potential for a competitive match.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Pogoń Siedlce and Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.55
Pogoń Siedlce and Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki attack and defence ratings
Pogoń Siedlce
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
- Puszcza Niepołomice v Miedz Legnica — match page
- Odra Opole vs Unia Skierniewice
- Arka Gdynia v Podbeskidzie — match page
- Nieciecza vs Chrobry Głogów — team news & stats
- Warta Poznań vs Polonia Warszawa
- Polonia Bytom vs Lechia Gdansk
- ŁKS Łódź v Stal Rzeszów — match page
- Stal Mielec vs Ruch Chorzów — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Pogoń Siedlce vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Pogoń Siedlce | 40.5% | 2.47 | -2.2% | 2.20 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 53.1% | 1.88 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.1% | 1.88 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.5% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 66.0% | 1.51 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Pogoń Siedlce | 40.5% |
| Draw | 27.5% | |
| Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | 31.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 53.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.1% |
| No | 46.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 68.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 59.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Pogoń Siedlce win | 15.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.8% | |
| Loss | 66.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.0% |
| 0-0 | 9.1% | |
| 0-1 | 8.9% |
Pogoń Siedlce vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki stats
Pogoń Siedlce and Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki recent form
| Pogoń Siedlce |
DLWLLL |
| Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki |
LLLWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Pogoń Siedlce and Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki season so far
Pogoń Siedlce record
- They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki record
- They have won 6 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Pogoń Siedlce vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | Pogoń Siedlce | I Liga | 0-2 |
| 2025-10-04 | Pogoń Siedlce | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | I Liga | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Pogoń Siedlce vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 42.7%, draw 27.0%, away 30.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.11 | 3.34 | 3.01 |
| Bet365 | 2.15 | 3.30 | 2.88 |
| BetVictor | 2.15 | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| Betano | 2.20 | 3.45 | 3.00 |
| Betfair | 2.10 | 3.40 | 2.90 |
| Dafabet | 2.17 | 3.50 | 3.00 |
| Marathonbet | 2.09 | 3.34 | 2.94 |
| Pinnacle | 2.19 | 3.47 | 3.15 |
| SBO | 2.06 | 3.07 | 2.80 |
| William Hill | 2.10 | 3.20 | 3.10 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
7 snapshots recorded, from .