Garuda Lions
Today
I Liga · ·Matchday 14

Polonia Bytom vs Lechia Gdansk

Garuda Lions Prediction: Polonia Bytom

2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability

  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.22 vs 1.52.
  • RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Bet on Polonia Bytom

Boisko ul. Pilkarska 8

Polonia Bytom 46%
Draw 24%
Lechia Gdansk 30%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Chance Polonia Bytom wins
46%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
97%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
70%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
2 – 1
9% of simulated outcomes

Polonia Bytom vs Lechia Gdansk overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Polonia Bytom vs Lechia Gdansk

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityPolonia BytomDrawLechia Gdansk
Model52.8%21.9%25.3%
Market43.4%25.0%31.6%
Final45.7%24.2%30.1%
Edge+2.3%-0.8%-1.6%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Polonia Bytom

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.22 vs 1.52.
  • The market prices Polonia Bytom below our published probability: +2.3 percentage points of edge.

Best available price on the pick: 2.16, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -1.2% per unit staked (our 45.7% × 2.16 − 1).

Polonia Bytom vs Lechia Gdansk match preview

Polonia Bytom and Lechia Gdansk are set to face off in the I Liga, with Polonia Bytom holding a 43% probability of winning, while Lechia Gdansk has a 34% chance. The model predicts a likely scoreline of 2-1 in favor of Polonia Bytom, with an 8% likelihood. Both teams are expected to contribute to a high-scoring match, with a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 72% probability that both teams will score.

In terms of recent form, Polonia Bytom has recorded a sequence of results with two wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five matches, while Lechia Gdansk has won four of their last five games, with one loss. The expected goals for Polonia Bytom stand at 1.99, compared to 1.74 for Lechia Gdansk, indicating a competitive matchup. The confidence grade for this forecast is C.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Polonia Bytom ↓ / Lechia Gdansk → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 4% 9% 6% 2 6% 9% 7% 3 7% 5% 4+ 6% 5%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 89%
3+ goals 72%
No goals 3%

Polonia Bytom and Lechia Gdansk expected goals

Polonia Bytom 2.22
Lechia Gdansk 1.52

Total expected goals: 3.73

Polonia Bytom and Lechia Gdansk attack and defence ratings

Polonia Bytom

Attack 1.09 +9%
Defence 0.90 -10%

Lechia Gdansk

Attack 1.27 +27%
Defence 1.30 +30%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Other Matchday 14 fixtures

I Liga

Before and after this match

Polonia Bytom vs Lechia Gdansk markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Polonia Bytom 45.7% 2.19 +2.3% 2.16
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 72.0% 1.39 — —
Both teams to score Yes 70.4% 1.42 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 75.8% 1.32 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 47.2% 2.12 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Polonia Bytom45.7%
Draw24.2%
Lechia Gdansk30.1%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.572.0%
Under 2.528.0%
Both teams to scoreYes70.4%
No29.6%
Double chance1X (home or draw)69.9%
12 (either side)75.8%
X2 (draw or away)54.3%
Handicap -1Polonia Bytom win32.7%
Push (exactly one goal)20.1%
Loss47.2%
Correct score (top 3)2-18.9%
1-18.8%
2-26.8%
Compare prices for this pick

Polonia Bytom vs Lechia Gdansk stats

Polonia Bytom and Lechia Gdansk recent form

newest first
Polonia Bytom WLWWWD
Lechia Gdansk WLLWWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Polonia Bytom and Lechia Gdansk season so far

league record

Polonia Bytom record

  • They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.

Lechia Gdansk record

  • They have won 6 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.

Polonia Bytom vs Lechia Gdansk head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Polonia Bytom vs Lechia Gdansk odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 43.4%, draw 25.0%, away 31.6%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.06 3.65 2.88
Bet365 2.10 3.60 2.80
BetVictor 2.10 3.70 2.88
Betano 2.15 3.65 2.95
Betfair 2.10 3.70 2.88
Dafabet 2.16 3.75 2.95
Marathonbet 2.04 3.65 2.82
Pinnacle 2.15 3.80 3.00
SBO 2.02 3.34 2.67
William Hill 2.10 3.40 2.90
Find the best place to bet

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.10 —
X 3.65 —
2 2.88 ▼ -0.01

7 snapshots recorded, from .

Prediction snapshot 1 Polonia Bytom Predicted score 2 – 1 Low Bet Now
v Bet Now