Arka Gdynia
vs
Podbeskidzie
Garuda Lions Prediction: Arka Gdynia
1 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Arka Gdynia is the favourite, not a value bet.
Arka Gdynia vs Podbeskidzie overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Arka Gdynia vs Podbeskidzie
| Probability | Arka Gdynia | Draw | Podbeskidzie |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40.7% | 30.9% | 28.5% |
| Market | 47.8% | 26.2% | 26.0% |
| Final | 46.0% | 27.4% | 26.6% |
| Edge | -1.8% | +1.2% | +0.6% |
Best available price on the pick: 1.95, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -10.3% per unit staked (our 46.0% × 1.95 − 1).
Arka Gdynia vs Podbeskidzie match preview
Arka Gdynia faces Podbeskidzie in the I Liga on November 7, 2026. According to our model, Arka Gdynia has a 41% probability of winning, while Podbeskidzie stands at 30%, and a draw is estimated at 29%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Arka Gdynia, with a 10% chance. Expected goals are calculated at 1.40 for Arka Gdynia and 1.16 for Podbeskidzie, suggesting a tight contest.
In terms of recent form, Arka Gdynia has struggled, recording six matches with three losses in their last six games (L-W-L-L-L-L). Conversely, Podbeskidzie has shown more resilience, with three wins, two draws, and one loss in their last six matches (W-L-W-D-D-D). The model indicates a 47% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance for both teams to score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Arka Gdynia and Podbeskidzie expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.28
Arka Gdynia and Podbeskidzie attack and defence ratings
Arka Gdynia
Podbeskidzie
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
- Puszcza Niepołomice v Miedz Legnica — match page
- Odra Opole vs Unia Skierniewice
- Nieciecza vs Chrobry Głogów — team news & stats
- Warta Poznań vs Polonia Warszawa
- Polonia Bytom vs Lechia Gdansk
- ŁKS Łódź v Stal Rzeszów — match page
- Pogoń Siedlce vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki — team news & stats
- Stal Mielec vs Ruch Chorzów — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Arka Gdynia vs Podbeskidzie markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Arka Gdynia | 46.0% | 2.17 | -1.8% | 1.95 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 60.2% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 52.9% | 1.89 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.4% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 59.3% | 1.69 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Arka Gdynia | 46.0% |
| Draw | 27.4% | |
| Podbeskidzie | 26.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 60.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47.1% |
| No | 52.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 54.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Arka Gdynia win | 18.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.9% | |
| Loss | 59.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.5% |
| 1-0 | 11.6% | |
| 0-0 | 11.6% |
Arka Gdynia vs Podbeskidzie stats
Arka Gdynia and Podbeskidzie recent form
| Arka Gdynia |
DLWLLL |
| Podbeskidzie |
DWLWDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Arka Gdynia and Podbeskidzie season so far
Arka Gdynia record
- They have won 4 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 13 matches.
Podbeskidzie record
- They have won 2 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 13 matches.
Arka Gdynia vs Podbeskidzie head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-05-03 | Podbeskidzie | Arka Gdynia | I Liga | 0-0 |
| 2023-11-04 | Arka Gdynia | Podbeskidzie | I Liga | 1-0 |
| 2022-11-12 | Arka Gdynia | Podbeskidzie | I Liga | 2-2 |
| 2022-07-17 | Podbeskidzie | Arka Gdynia | I Liga | 0-1 |
| 2022-05-13 | Podbeskidzie | Arka Gdynia | I Liga | 1-1 |
| 2021-11-05 | Arka Gdynia | Podbeskidzie | I Liga | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Arka Gdynia vs Podbeskidzie odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 47.8%, draw 26.2%, away 26.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.88 | 3.44 | 3.52 |
| Bet365 | 1.85 | 3.40 | 3.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.90 | 3.50 | 3.50 |
| Betano | 1.95 | 3.60 | 3.45 |
| Betfair | 1.91 | 3.50 | 3.40 |
| Dafabet | 1.95 | 3.55 | 3.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.86 | 3.44 | 3.44 |
| Pinnacle | 1.94 | 3.61 | 3.67 |
| SBO | 1.88 | 3.12 | 3.15 |
| William Hill | 1.91 | 3.30 | 3.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .