Warta Poznań
vs
Polonia Warszawa
Garuda Lions Prediction: Polonia Warszawa
0 – 1 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Polonia Warszawa is the favourite, not a value bet.
Warta Poznań vs Polonia Warszawa overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Warta Poznań vs Polonia Warszawa
| Probability | Warta Poznań | Draw | Polonia Warszawa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32.6% | 31.3% | 36.1% |
| Market | 32.1% | 27.5% | 40.4% |
| Final | 32.3% | 28.5% | 39.3% |
| Edge | +0.1% | +1.0% | -1.1% |
Why Polonia Warszawa
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.32, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.9% per unit staked (our 39.3% × 2.32 − 1).
Warta Poznań vs Polonia Warszawa match preview
Warta Poznań faces Polonia Warszawa in an I Liga matchup with kickoff scheduled for November 7, 2026. According to our model, Warta Poznań has a 33% chance of winning, while Polonia Warszawa holds a slight edge at 36%. The predicted scoreline leans towards a 0-1 outcome, which has a 10% likelihood. Both teams have shown varying recent form, with Warta Poznań recording two wins and three losses in their last six matches, while Polonia Warszawa remains unbeaten in their last four, with three wins and one draw.
The expected goals for Warta Poznań stand at 1.15, compared to Polonia Warszawa's 1.21. There is a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals in the match, and both teams are forecasted to score with a 49% chance. The confidence grade for this prediction is C, indicating moderate reliability.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Warta Poznań and Polonia Warszawa expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.26
Warta Poznań and Polonia Warszawa attack and defence ratings
Warta Poznań
Polonia Warszawa
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
- Puszcza Niepołomice v Miedz Legnica — match page
- Odra Opole vs Unia Skierniewice
- Arka Gdynia v Podbeskidzie — match page
- Nieciecza vs Chrobry Głogów — team news & stats
- Polonia Bytom vs Lechia Gdansk
- ŁKS Łódź v Stal Rzeszów — match page
- Pogoń Siedlce vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki — team news & stats
- Stal Mielec vs Ruch Chorzów — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Warta Poznań vs Polonia Warszawa markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Polonia Warszawa | 39.3% | 2.55 | -1.1% | 2.32 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 60.8% | 1.65 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 52.9% | 1.89 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.5% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 63.9% | 1.56 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Warta Poznań | 32.3% |
| Draw | 28.5% | |
| Polonia Warszawa | 39.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 60.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47.1% |
| No | 52.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 60.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 67.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Polonia Warszawa win | 15.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.4% | |
| Loss | 63.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.6% |
| 0-0 | 11.8% | |
| 0-1 | 10.8% |
Warta Poznań vs Polonia Warszawa stats
Warta Poznań and Polonia Warszawa recent form
| Warta Poznań |
DLWLWW |
| Polonia Warszawa |
DWDWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Warta Poznań and Polonia Warszawa season so far
Warta Poznań record
- They have won 6 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Polonia Warszawa record
- They have won 6 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Warta Poznań vs Polonia Warszawa head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-15 | Warta Poznań | Polonia Warszawa | I Liga | 1-2 |
| 2024-08-23 | Polonia Warszawa | Warta Poznań | I Liga | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Warta Poznań vs Polonia Warszawa odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 32.1%, draw 27.5%, away 40.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.86 | 3.25 | 2.23 |
| Bet365 | 2.70 | 3.30 | 2.25 |
| BetVictor | 2.80 | 3.40 | 2.25 |
| Betano | 2.92 | 3.30 | 2.30 |
| Betfair | 2.88 | 3.40 | 2.20 |
| Dafabet | 2.85 | 3.45 | 2.32 |
| Marathonbet | 2.79 | 3.25 | 2.21 |
| Pinnacle | 2.97 | 3.45 | 2.30 |
| SBO | 2.62 | 3.07 | 2.15 |
| William Hill | 2.80 | 3.20 | 2.25 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .