Nieciecza
vs
Chrobry Głogów
Garuda Lions Prediction: Nieciecza
1 – 0 Predicted score · 14% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.31 vs 0.81.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Nieciecza is the favourite, not a value bet.
Nieciecza vs Chrobry Głogów overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Nieciecza vs Chrobry Głogów
| Probability | Nieciecza | Draw | Chrobry Głogów |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47.0% | 31.1% | 21.9% |
| Market | 49.5% | 26.2% | 24.3% |
| Final | 48.9% | 27.4% | 23.7% |
| Edge | -0.6% | +1.2% | -0.6% |
Why Nieciecza
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.31 vs 0.81.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.89, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.6% per unit staked (our 48.9% × 1.89 − 1).
Nieciecza vs Chrobry Głogów match preview
Nieciecza hosts Chrobry Głogów in an I Liga matchup on November 7, 2026. According to our model, Nieciecza has a 51% chance of winning, while a draw stands at 28% and Chrobry Głogów at 21%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with an expected goals tally of 1.54 for Nieciecza and 0.91 for Chrobry Głogów.
Recent form indicates Nieciecza is performing well with three wins in their last five matches, while Chrobry Głogów has struggled, managing only one win in their last six outings. The probabilities suggest a competitive match, with a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% likelihood of both teams scoring. The confidence grade for this prediction is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Nieciecza and Chrobry Głogów expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.12
Nieciecza and Chrobry Głogów attack and defence ratings
Nieciecza
Chrobry Głogów
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
- Puszcza Niepołomice v Miedz Legnica — match page
- Odra Opole vs Unia Skierniewice
- Arka Gdynia v Podbeskidzie — match page
- Warta Poznań vs Polonia Warszawa
- Polonia Bytom vs Lechia Gdansk
- ŁKS Łódź v Stal Rzeszów — match page
- Pogoń Siedlce vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki — team news & stats
- Stal Mielec vs Ruch Chorzów — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Nieciecza vs Chrobry Głogów markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nieciecza | 48.9% | 2.05 | -0.6% | 1.89 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 64.4% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 58.1% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.3% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 53.0% | 1.89 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nieciecza | 48.9% |
| Draw | 27.4% | |
| Chrobry Głogów | 23.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 35.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 64.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41.9% |
| No | 58.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 51.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Nieciecza win | 22.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.4% | |
| Loss | 53.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 14.4% |
| 1-1 | 14.0% | |
| 0-0 | 13.3% |
Nieciecza vs Chrobry Głogów stats
Nieciecza and Chrobry Głogów recent form
| Nieciecza |
DWLWDW |
| Chrobry Głogów |
DWDLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Nieciecza and Chrobry Głogów season so far
Nieciecza record
- They have won 6 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Chrobry Głogów record
- They have won 3 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game on the road against 0.4 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 13 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Nieciecza vs Chrobry Głogów head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-07 | Nieciecza | Chrobry Głogów | I Liga | 3-2 |
| 2024-07-27 | Chrobry Głogów | Nieciecza | I Liga | 0-4 |
| 2024-02-18 | Nieciecza | Chrobry Głogów | I Liga | 1-1 |
| 2023-08-05 | Chrobry Głogów | Nieciecza | I Liga | 0-5 |
| 2023-03-04 | Chrobry Głogów | Nieciecza | I Liga | 0-2 |
| 2022-08-11 | Nieciecza | Chrobry Głogów | I Liga | 3-1 |
| 2021-05-19 | Nieciecza | Chrobry Głogów | I Liga | 0-0 |
| 2020-11-04 | Chrobry Głogów | Nieciecza | I Liga | 0-2 |
| 2019-11-23 | Nieciecza | Chrobry Głogów | I Liga | 4-0 |
| 2019-08-02 | Chrobry Głogów | Nieciecza | I Liga | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Nieciecza vs Chrobry Głogów odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 49.5%, draw 26.2%, away 24.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.81 | 3.48 | 3.76 |
| Bet365 | 1.80 | 3.40 | 3.70 |
| BetVictor | 1.83 | 3.50 | 3.80 |
| Betano | 1.88 | 3.55 | 3.80 |
| Betfair | 1.87 | 3.50 | 3.60 |
| Dafabet | 1.89 | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| Marathonbet | 1.79 | 3.48 | 3.68 |
| Pinnacle | 1.86 | 3.65 | 3.95 |
| SBO | 1.84 | 3.10 | 3.32 |
| William Hill | 1.85 | 3.30 | 3.75 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .