Stal Mielec
vs
Ruch Chorzów
Garuda Lions Prediction: Ruch Chorzów
0 – 1 Predicted score · 12% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.73 vs 0.82.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Ruch Chorzów is the favourite, not a value bet.
Stal Mielec vs Ruch Chorzów overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Stal Mielec vs Ruch Chorzów
| Probability | Stal Mielec | Draw | Ruch Chorzów |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 16.5% | 25.7% | 57.8% |
| Market | 21.6% | 25.0% | 53.4% |
| Final | 20.3% | 25.1% | 54.5% |
| Edge | -1.3% | +0.2% | +1.1% |
Why Ruch Chorzów
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.73 vs 0.82.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.83, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -0.2% per unit staked (our 54.5% × 1.83 − 1).
Stal Mielec vs Ruch Chorzów match preview
Stal Mielec faces Ruch Chorzów in an I Liga clash, with the probabilities indicating a significant advantage for the visitors. Ruch Chorzów holds a 59% chance of winning, compared to Stal Mielec's 16% and a 25% likelihood of a draw. The expected goals suggest a challenging match for Stal Mielec, with a forecast of 0.83 goals, while Ruch Chorzów is anticipated to score 1.80.
In terms of recent form, Stal Mielec has struggled, recording one win in their last six matches (W-D-L-W-L-L), whereas Ruch Chorzów is in strong form, having won four of their last six (W-W-W-W-D-D). The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is a 0-1 victory for Ruch Chorzów, occurring at a 12% probability.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Stal Mielec and Ruch Chorzów expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.55
Stal Mielec and Ruch Chorzów attack and defence ratings
Stal Mielec
Ruch Chorzów
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
- Puszcza Niepołomice v Miedz Legnica — match page
- Odra Opole vs Unia Skierniewice
- Arka Gdynia v Podbeskidzie — match page
- Nieciecza vs Chrobry Głogów — team news & stats
- Warta Poznań vs Polonia Warszawa
- Polonia Bytom vs Lechia Gdansk
- ŁKS Łódź v Stal Rzeszów — match page
- Pogoń Siedlce vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Stal Mielec vs Ruch Chorzów markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ruch Chorzów | 54.5% | 1.83 | +1.1% | 1.83 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 53.0% | 1.89 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 52.8% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 79.7% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 42.2% | 2.37 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Stal Mielec | 20.3% |
| Draw | 25.1% | |
| Ruch Chorzów | 54.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 53.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47.2% |
| No | 52.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 45.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 79.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Ruch Chorzów win | 33.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.5% | |
| Loss | 42.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-1 | 12.4% |
| 1-1 | 12.2% | |
| 0-2 | 11.7% |
Stal Mielec vs Ruch Chorzów stats
Stal Mielec and Ruch Chorzów recent form
| Stal Mielec |
WDLWLL |
| Ruch Chorzów |
DWWWWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Stal Mielec and Ruch Chorzów season so far
Stal Mielec record
- They have won 3 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 12 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Ruch Chorzów record
- They have won 6 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 12 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Stal Mielec vs Ruch Chorzów head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | Ruch Chorzów | Stal Mielec | I Liga | 2-1 |
| 2025-08-31 | Stal Mielec | Ruch Chorzów | I Liga | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Stal Mielec vs Ruch Chorzów odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 21.6%, draw 25.0%, away 53.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.20 | 3.64 | 1.69 |
| Bet365 | 3.90 | 3.60 | 1.70 |
| BetVictor | 4.20 | 3.70 | 1.70 |
| Betano | 4.20 | 3.80 | 1.72 |
| Betfair | 3.50 | 3.60 | 1.83 |
| Dafabet | 4.20 | 3.75 | 1.74 |
| Marathonbet | 4.10 | 3.64 | 1.67 |
| Pinnacle | 4.51 | 3.86 | 1.71 |
| SBO | 3.77 | 3.36 | 1.65 |
| William Hill | 4.20 | 3.50 | 1.70 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
7 snapshots recorded, from .