Chrobry Głogów
vs
Arka Gdynia
Garuda Lions Prediction: Arka Gdynia
0 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Arka Gdynia is the favourite, not a value bet.
Chrobry Głogów vs Arka Gdynia overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Chrobry Głogów vs Arka Gdynia
| Probability | Chrobry Głogów | Draw | Arka Gdynia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38.2% | 30.5% | 31.4% |
| Market | 33.5% | 28.6% | 37.9% |
| Final | 34.7% | 29.0% | 36.3% |
| Edge | +1.2% | +0.5% | -1.6% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.47, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -10.4% per unit staked (our 36.3% × 2.47 − 1).
Chrobry Głogów vs Arka Gdynia match preview
Chrobry Głogów faces Arka Gdynia in an I Liga clash, with probabilities indicating a competitive matchup. Chrobry Głogów has a 32% chance of winning, while Arka Gdynia is slightly favored at 39%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 0-1, occurring with a 10% probability. Expected goals suggest Chrobry Głogów will generate 1.12, compared to Arka Gdynia's 1.27.
Recent form shows Chrobry Głogów struggling with a record of D-L-L-L-D-D, while Arka Gdynia has also faced challenges, recording W-L-L-L-L-D. The probability of over 2.5 goals stands at 43%, and both teams are expected to score 50% of the time. The overall confidence grade for this matchup is C, indicating a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Chrobry Głogów and Arka Gdynia expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.36
Chrobry Głogów and Arka Gdynia attack and defence ratings
Chrobry Głogów
Arka Gdynia
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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- Podbeskidzie v Warta Poznań — match page
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- Stal Rzeszów v Puszcza Niepołomice — match page
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Before and after this match
Chrobry Głogów vs Arka Gdynia markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Arka Gdynia | 36.3% | 2.76 | -1.6% | 2.47 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 58.0% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 50.8% | 1.97 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.0% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 68.6% | 1.46 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Chrobry Głogów | 34.7% |
| Draw | 29.0% | |
| Arka Gdynia | 36.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 58.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.2% |
| No | 50.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 63.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 65.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Arka Gdynia win | 13.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.3% | |
| Loss | 68.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.4% |
| 0-0 | 10.7% | |
| 1-0 | 10.5% |
Chrobry Głogów vs Arka Gdynia stats
Chrobry Głogów and Arka Gdynia recent form
| Chrobry Głogów |
WDLLLD |
| Arka Gdynia |
LWLLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Chrobry Głogów and Arka Gdynia season so far
Chrobry Głogów record
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 11 matches.
- 62% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Arka Gdynia record
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
Chrobry Głogów vs Arka Gdynia head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Chrobry Głogów vs Arka Gdynia odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 33.5%, draw 28.6%, away 37.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.67 | 3.14 | 2.35 |
| Bet365 | 2.70 | 3.10 | 2.38 |
| BetVictor | 2.70 | 3.30 | 2.38 |
| Betano | 2.77 | 3.20 | 2.45 |
| Dafabet | 2.80 | 3.20 | 2.44 |
| Marathonbet | 2.67 | 3.14 | 2.35 |
| Pinnacle | 2.80 | 3.29 | 2.47 |
| William Hill | 2.70 | 3.00 | 2.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
5 snapshots recorded, from .