Stal Rzeszów
vs
Puszcza Niepołomice
Garuda Lions Prediction: Stal Rzeszów
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.81 vs 1.26.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Stal Rzeszów vs Puszcza Niepołomice overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Stal Rzeszów vs Puszcza Niepołomice
| Probability | Stal Rzeszów | Draw | Puszcza Niepołomice |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49.2% | 25.2% | 25.6% |
| Market | 39.1% | 27.5% | 33.4% |
| Final | 41.6% | 26.9% | 31.5% |
| Edge | +2.5% | -0.6% | -1.9% |
Why Stal Rzeszów
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.81 vs 1.26.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Stal Rzeszów below our published probability: +2.5 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.42, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +0.7% per unit staked (our 41.6% × 2.42 − 1).
Stal Rzeszów vs Puszcza Niepołomice match preview
Stal Rzeszów faces Puszcza Niepołomice in an I Liga matchup with Stal Rzeszów holding a 43% probability of victory according to our model. The expected goals for Stal Rzeszów stand at 1.66, while Puszcza Niepołomice is projected at 1.39. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Stal Rzeszów, with a 9% chance of occurring.
In terms of recent form, Stal Rzeszów has won four of their last six matches, while Puszcza Niepołomice has struggled, winning only two of their last six. The probability of over 2.5 goals is 59%, and both teams scoring is estimated at 62%. Historically, in their last two encounters, Puszcza Niepołomice has one win and one draw against Stal Rzeszów.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Stal Rzeszów and Puszcza Niepołomice expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.07
Stal Rzeszów and Puszcza Niepołomice attack and defence ratings
Stal Rzeszów
Puszcza Niepołomice
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Stal Mielec
- Miedz Legnica v Nieciecza — match page
- Lechia Gdansk vs Unia Skierniewice — team news & stats
- Podbeskidzie v Warta Poznań — match page
- Polonia Bytom vs Odra Opole — team news & stats
- ŁKS Łódź vs Polonia Warszawa — team news & stats
- Chrobry Głogów vs Arka Gdynia
- Pogoń Siedlce vs Ruch Chorzów
Before and after this match
Stal Rzeszów vs Puszcza Niepołomice markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Stal Rzeszów | 41.6% | 2.40 | +2.5% | 2.42 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.3% | 1.69 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.0% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.1% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 50.8% | 1.97 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Stal Rzeszów | 41.6% |
| Draw | 26.9% | |
| Puszcza Niepołomice | 31.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 40.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.0% |
| No | 39.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 68.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 58.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Stal Rzeszów win | 27.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.3% | |
| Loss | 50.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.6% |
| 2-1 | 9.6% | |
| 2-0 | 7.6% |
Stal Rzeszów vs Puszcza Niepołomice stats
Stal Rzeszów and Puszcza Niepołomice recent form
| Stal Rzeszów |
WLWLWW |
| Puszcza Niepołomice |
LWLWLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Stal Rzeszów and Puszcza Niepołomice season so far
Stal Rzeszów record
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Puszcza Niepołomice record
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 11 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Stal Rzeszów vs Puszcza Niepołomice head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-22 | Puszcza Niepołomice | Stal Rzeszów | I Liga | 4-1 |
| 2025-08-16 | Stal Rzeszów | Puszcza Niepołomice | I Liga | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Stal Rzeszów vs Puszcza Niepołomice odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 39.1%, draw 27.5%, away 33.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.31 | 3.26 | 2.64 |
| Bet365 | 2.30 | 3.20 | 2.75 |
| BetVictor | 2.30 | 3.40 | 2.70 |
| Betano | 2.40 | 3.30 | 2.77 |
| Betfair | 2.38 | 3.30 | 2.63 |
| Dafabet | 2.35 | 3.40 | 2.75 |
| Marathonbet | 2.31 | 3.26 | 2.64 |
| Pinnacle | 2.42 | 3.37 | 2.81 |
| SBO | 2.19 | 3.10 | 2.56 |
| William Hill | 2.30 | 3.10 | 2.70 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
5 snapshots recorded, from .