Ruch Chorzów
vs
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Garuda Lions Prediction: Ruch Chorzów
1 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.36 vs 0.96.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Ruch Chorzów is the favourite, not a value bet.
Ruch Chorzów vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Ruch Chorzów vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
| Probability | Ruch Chorzów | Draw | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44.8% | 30.0% | 25.1% |
| Market | 56.6% | 23.5% | 19.9% |
| Final | 53.6% | 25.1% | 21.2% |
| Edge | -2.9% | +1.6% | +1.3% |
Why Ruch Chorzów
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.36 vs 0.96.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.65, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -11.5% per unit staked (our 53.6% × 1.65 − 1).
Ruch Chorzów vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki match preview
Ruch Chorzów is favored to win against Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki with a 54% probability, while a draw stands at 25% and Pogoń's chances are at 21%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 1-0, occurring at a rate of 12%. Ruch Chorzów has shown strong recent form with three wins and two draws in their last six matches, whereas Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki has struggled, recording two wins and four losses in the same period.
In terms of expected goals, Ruch Chorzów is projected to score 1.36, compared to Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki's 0.96. The model indicates a 41% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% probability that both teams will score. In their last four head-to-head encounters, Ruch Chorzów has one win and three draws, with Pogoń yet to secure a victory.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Ruch Chorzów and Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.33
Ruch Chorzów and Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki attack and defence ratings
Ruch Chorzów
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Polonia Warszawa vs Miedz Legnica
- Arka Gdynia v Nieciecza — match page
- Stal Mielec vs Chrobry Głogów — team news & stats
- Unia Skierniewice vs Polonia Bytom — team news & stats
- Puszcza Niepołomice v Lechia Gdansk — match page
- Odra Opole vs Pogoń Siedlce — team news & stats
- Podbeskidzie vs Stal Rzeszów
- Warta Poznań vs ŁKS Łódź
Before and after this match
Ruch Chorzów vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ruch Chorzów | 53.6% | 1.86 | -2.9% | 1.65 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 58.9% | 1.70 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 52.7% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.8% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 55.2% | 1.81 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ruch Chorzów | 53.6% |
| Draw | 25.1% | |
| Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | 21.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 41.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 58.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47.3% |
| No | 52.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 46.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Ruch Chorzów win | 21.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.9% | |
| Loss | 55.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.1% |
| 1-0 | 12.1% | |
| 0-0 | 11.1% |
Ruch Chorzów vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki stats
Ruch Chorzów and Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki recent form
| Ruch Chorzów |
WWDDWW |
| Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki |
LWWLWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Ruch Chorzów and Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki season so far
Ruch Chorzów record
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki record
- They have won 6 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Ruch Chorzów vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-27 | Ruch Chorzów | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | I Liga | 2-2 |
| 2025-10-17 | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | Ruch Chorzów | I Liga | 2-2 |
| 2022-03-12 | Ruch Chorzów | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | II Liga - East | 4-1 |
| 2021-08-28 | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | Ruch Chorzów | II Liga - East | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Ruch Chorzów vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 56.7%, draw 23.4%, away 19.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.57 | 3.90 | 4.70 |
| Bet365 | 1.62 | 3.70 | 4.33 |
| BetVictor | 1.62 | 3.90 | 4.60 |
| Betano | 1.65 | 3.90 | 4.70 |
| Betfair | 1.57 | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| Dafabet | 1.65 | 4.00 | 4.70 |
| Marathonbet | 1.55 | 3.90 | 4.60 |
| Pinnacle | 1.62 | 4.20 | 4.99 |
| SBO | 1.54 | 3.55 | 4.21 |
| William Hill | 1.60 | 3.80 | 4.60 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .