I Liga
·
Full time
·Matchday 11
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
vs
Polonia Warszawa
0 – 1 Full time
| 13′ | J. Konstantyn | ||
| 13′ | H. Uzoigwe | ||
| 22′ | R. Dadok | ||
| 41′ | A. Oshafi | ||
| 46′ | H. UzoigweM. Ruszkiewicz | ||
| 57′ | M. Kuusk | ||
| 59′ | J. KonstantynN. Niski | ||
| 62′ | R. DadokE. Terpilowski | ||
| 69′ | P. Janasik | ||
| 71′ | P. JanasikI. Durmus | ||
| 71′ | S. SkrabbS. Kowalczyk | ||
| 71′ | J. PaszkowskiA. Kapusta | ||
| 72′ | R. MajewskiD. Jaron | ||
| 72′ | A. OshafiH. Turski | ||
| 78′ | G. BarkovskiyK. Kostorz | ||
| 85′ | D. Gnaase | ||
| 88′ | J. ZbrogJ. Jedrasik |
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
34%
Draw
26%
Polonia Warszawa
40%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Polonia Warszawa overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Polonia Warszawa
| Probability | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | Draw | Polonia Warszawa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46.4% | 26.8% | 26.8% |
| Market | 29.9% | 26.0% | 44.1% |
| Final | 34.1% | 26.2% | 39.8% |
| Edge | +16.5% | +0.8% | -17.2% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
93%
2+ goals
79%
3+ goals
54%
No goals
7%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki and Polonia Warszawa expected goals
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
1.63
Polonia Warszawa
1.20
Total expected goals: 2.83
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki and Polonia Warszawa attack and defence ratings
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Attack
1.16 +16%
Defence
0.80 -20%
Polonia Warszawa
Attack
1.10 +10%
Defence
0.90 -10%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Polonia Warszawa: result vs prediction
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 0 – 1 Polonia Warszawa
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Warta Poznań v Unia Skierniewice — match page
- Ruch Chorzów v Odra Opole — match page
- Miedz Legnica v Stal Mielec — match page
- Polonia Bytom vs Chrobry Głogów — team news & stats
- ŁKS Łódź vs Podbeskidzie — team news & stats
- Pogoń Siedlce vs Stal Rzeszów
- Lechia Gdansk vs Arka Gdynia — team news & stats
- Nieciecza vs Puszcza Niepołomice
Before and after this match
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Polonia Warszawa markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Polonia Warszawa | 39.8% | 2.51 | -17.2% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.8% | 1.86 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.3% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.8% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 73.2% | 1.37 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | 34.1% |
| Draw | 26.2% | |
| Polonia Warszawa | 39.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 46.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.3% |
| No | 42.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 60.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 65.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Polonia Warszawa win | 11.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 15.5% | |
| Loss | 73.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.7% |
| 2-1 | 9.4% | |
| 1-0 | 8.5% |
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Polonia Warszawa stats
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki and Polonia Warszawa recent form
| Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki |
WWLWLD |
| Polonia Warszawa |
WWDLWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki and Polonia Warszawa going into this match
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki record
- They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game on the road against 1.4 at home.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Polonia Warszawa record
- They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Polonia Warszawa head-to-head
Last 7 meetings
5Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki wins
1Draws
1Polonia Warszawa wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | Polonia Warszawa | I Liga | 3-2 |
| 2025-08-30 | Polonia Warszawa | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | I Liga | 2-1 |
| 2025-01-18 | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | Polonia Warszawa | Friendlies Clubs | 3-1 |
| 2024-07-12 | Polonia Warszawa | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | Friendlies Clubs | 2-4 |
| 2021-05-15 | Polonia Warszawa | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | III Liga - Group 1 | 0-2 |
| 2021-04-03 | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | Polonia Warszawa | III Liga - Group 1 | 3-3 |
| 2021-03-13 | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | Polonia Warszawa | III Liga - Group 1 | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Polonia Warszawa odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 29.7%, draw 26.1%, away 44.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.09 | 3.54 | 2.00 |
| Bet365 | 2.88 | 3.40 | 2.10 |
| BetVictor | 3.10 | 3.50 | 2.05 |
| Betano | 3.10 | 3.40 | 2.15 |
| Betfair | 3.10 | 3.60 | 2.00 |
| Dafabet | 3.10 | 3.60 | 2.12 |
| Marathonbet | 3.02 | 3.54 | 1.98 |
| Pinnacle | 3.27 | 3.60 | 2.14 |
| SBO | 2.88 | 3.19 | 1.96 |
| William Hill | 2.90 | 3.30 | 2.10 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
3.05 ▼ -0.11
X
3.52 ▼ -0.05
2
2.08 ▲ +0.10
13 snapshots recorded, from .