Arka Gdynia
vs
Polonia Warszawa
Garuda Lions Prediction: Arka Gdynia
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
Arka Gdynia vs Polonia Warszawa overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Arka Gdynia vs Polonia Warszawa
| Probability | Arka Gdynia | Draw | Polonia Warszawa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34.1% | 27.7% | 38.2% |
| Market | 41.4% | 27.0% | 31.6% |
| Final | 39.5% | 27.2% | 33.2% |
| Edge | -7.3% | +0.7% | +6.6% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.27, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Arka Gdynia vs Polonia Warszawa match preview
Arka Gdynia is set to face Polonia Warszawa in their upcoming I Liga match on October 10, 2026. The model indicates a close contest, with Arka Gdynia holding a 38% probability of winning, while Polonia Warszawa is slightly behind at 35%. The likelihood of a draw stands at 27%. The expected goals suggest a competitive match, with Arka Gdynia at 1.35 and Polonia Warszawa at 1.44.
In terms of recent form, Arka Gdynia has struggled, recording two losses, a draw, and two wins in their last five matches. Conversely, Polonia Warszawa has shown stronger form, with three wins, a draw, and a loss in their recent outings. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1 in favor of Arka Gdynia, with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% probability for both teams to score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Arka Gdynia and Polonia Warszawa expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.78
Arka Gdynia and Polonia Warszawa attack and defence ratings
Arka Gdynia
Polonia Warszawa
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Podbeskidzie v Pogoń Siedlce — match page
- Chrobry Głogów vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki — team news & stats
- Unia Skierniewice vs Nieciecza
- Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań
- ŁKS Łódź v Ruch Chorzów — match page
- Puszcza Niepołomice vs Polonia Bytom — team news & stats
- Odra Opole vs Miedz Legnica
- Stal Rzeszów vs Lechia Gdansk — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Arka Gdynia vs Polonia Warszawa markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Arka Gdynia | 39.5% | 2.53 | -7.3% | 2.27 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.6% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.6% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.8% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 65.9% | 1.52 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Arka Gdynia | 39.5% |
| Draw | 27.2% | |
| Polonia Warszawa | 33.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 47.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.6% |
| No | 42.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 66.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 60.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Arka Gdynia win | 15.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.2% | |
| Loss | 65.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.2% |
| 1-2 | 8.6% | |
| 2-1 | 8.1% |
Arka Gdynia vs Polonia Warszawa stats
Arka Gdynia and Polonia Warszawa recent form
| Arka Gdynia |
LLDWDL |
| Polonia Warszawa |
WDLWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Arka Gdynia and Polonia Warszawa season so far
Arka Gdynia record
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
Polonia Warszawa record
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Arka Gdynia vs Polonia Warszawa head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-14 | Arka Gdynia | Polonia Warszawa | I Liga | 0-0 |
| 2024-08-03 | Polonia Warszawa | Arka Gdynia | I Liga | 0-3 |
| 2024-02-17 | Polonia Warszawa | Arka Gdynia | I Liga | 0-3 |
| 2023-08-07 | Arka Gdynia | Polonia Warszawa | I Liga | 2-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Arka Gdynia vs Polonia Warszawa odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 41.4%, draw 27.0%, away 31.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.19 | 3.32 | 2.87 |
| Bet365 | 2.15 | 3.30 | 2.80 |
| BetVictor | 2.20 | 3.40 | 2.88 |
| Betano | 2.25 | 3.40 | 2.92 |
| Betfair | 2.15 | 3.40 | 2.90 |
| Dafabet | 2.25 | 3.45 | 3.00 |
| Marathonbet | 2.17 | 3.32 | 2.80 |
| Pinnacle | 2.27 | 3.48 | 2.96 |
| SBO | 2.14 | 3.02 | 2.67 |
| William Hill | 2.20 | 3.20 | 2.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .