Puszcza Niepołomice
vs
Polonia Bytom
Garuda Lions Prediction: Puszcza Niepołomice
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Puszcza Niepołomice vs Polonia Bytom overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Puszcza Niepołomice vs Polonia Bytom
| Probability | Puszcza Niepołomice | Draw | Polonia Bytom |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41.8% | 27.2% | 31.0% |
| Market | 37.1% | 26.9% | 36.0% |
| Final | 38.3% | 27.0% | 34.7% |
| Edge | +4.7% | +0.3% | -5.0% |
Why Puszcza Niepołomice
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Puszcza Niepołomice below the model: +4.7 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.50, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Puszcza Niepołomice vs Polonia Bytom match preview
Puszcza Niepołomice faces Polonia Bytom in an I Liga match on October 11, 2026. The model assigns a 42% probability of a home win for Puszcza Niepołomice, while Polonia Bytom has a 31% chance of victory, and a draw is estimated at 27%. The expected goals for Puszcza Niepołomice stand at 1.54, compared to 1.30 for Polonia Bytom, indicating a competitive match.
In terms of recent form, Puszcza Niepołomice has recorded two wins and four losses in their last six matches, while Polonia Bytom has drawn five times and won once in their recent outings. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1 in favor of Puszcza Niepołomice, with a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% probability that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Puszcza Niepołomice and Polonia Bytom expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.84
Puszcza Niepołomice and Polonia Bytom attack and defence ratings
Puszcza Niepołomice
Polonia Bytom
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Podbeskidzie v Pogoń Siedlce — match page
- Arka Gdynia v Polonia Warszawa — match page
- Chrobry Głogów vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki — team news & stats
- Unia Skierniewice vs Nieciecza
- Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań
- ŁKS Łódź v Ruch Chorzów — match page
- Odra Opole vs Miedz Legnica
- Stal Rzeszów vs Lechia Gdansk — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Puszcza Niepołomice vs Polonia Bytom markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Puszcza Niepołomice | 38.3% | 2.61 | +4.7% | 2.50 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.9% | 1.86 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.2% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.0% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 58.2% | 1.72 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Puszcza Niepołomice | 38.3% |
| Draw | 27.0% | |
| Polonia Bytom | 34.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 46.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.2% |
| No | 41.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 65.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 61.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Puszcza Niepołomice win | 21.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.4% | |
| Loss | 58.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.9% |
| 2-1 | 9.0% | |
| 1-0 | 7.9% |
Puszcza Niepołomice vs Polonia Bytom stats
Puszcza Niepołomice and Polonia Bytom recent form
| Puszcza Niepołomice |
LLWWLL |
| Polonia Bytom |
DWDDDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Puszcza Niepołomice and Polonia Bytom season so far
Puszcza Niepołomice record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Polonia Bytom record
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
Puszcza Niepołomice vs Polonia Bytom head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | Puszcza Niepołomice | Polonia Bytom | I Liga | 2-1 |
| 2025-10-04 | Polonia Bytom | Puszcza Niepołomice | I Liga | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Puszcza Niepołomice vs Polonia Bytom odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 37.1%, draw 26.9%, away 36.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.35 | 3.42 | 2.50 |
| Bet365 | 2.45 | 3.20 | 2.50 |
| BetVictor | 2.45 | 3.30 | 2.60 |
| Betano | 2.45 | 3.40 | 2.65 |
| Betfair | 2.38 | 3.50 | 2.55 |
| Dafabet | 2.50 | 3.35 | 2.60 |
| Marathonbet | 2.35 | 3.42 | 2.50 |
| Pinnacle | 2.49 | 3.63 | 2.57 |
| SBO | 2.33 | 2.99 | 2.45 |
| William Hill | 2.45 | 3.20 | 2.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .