Pogoń Siedlce
vs
Puszcza Niepołomice
Garuda Lions Prediction: Pogoń Siedlce
1 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
Pogoń Siedlce vs Puszcza Niepołomice overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Pogoń Siedlce vs Puszcza Niepołomice
| Probability | Pogoń Siedlce | Draw | Puszcza Niepołomice |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42.3% | 30.3% | 27.4% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 42.3% | 30.3% | 27.4% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Pogoń Siedlce
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.32 vs 1.01.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 3.10, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Pogoń Siedlce vs Puszcza Niepołomice match preview
Pogoń Siedlce will face Puszcza Niepołomice in their upcoming I Liga match on October 15, 2026. The model gives Pogoń Siedlce a 42% chance of winning, while Puszcza Niepołomice has a 27% probability of victory, with a 30% likelihood of a draw. The expected goals suggest Pogoń Siedlce will score 1.32, compared to Puszcza Niepołomice's 1.01. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, occurring at an 11% probability.
In terms of recent form, Pogoń Siedlce has recorded three wins and a draw in their last six matches, while Puszcza Niepołomice has struggled with only two wins in their last six games. In their last two encounters, Pogoń Siedlce has not secured a win against Puszcza Niepołomice, with one draw and one loss.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Pogoń Siedlce and Puszcza Niepołomice expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.33
Pogoń Siedlce and Puszcza Niepołomice attack and defence ratings
Pogoń Siedlce
Puszcza Niepołomice
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
- Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki v Warta Poznań — match page
- Nieciecza vs Lechia Gdansk — team news & stats
- Miedz Legnica vs Chrobry Głogów
- Stal Mielec v Odra Opole — match page
- Stal Rzeszów vs Polonia Warszawa — team news & stats
- Arka Gdynia vs ŁKS Łódź
- Polonia Bytom v Podbeskidzie — match page
- Ruch Chorzów vs Unia Skierniewice
Before and after this match
Pogoń Siedlce vs Puszcza Niepołomice markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Pogoń Siedlce | 42.3% | 2.36 | — | 3.10 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 58.7% | 1.70 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 52.0% | 1.92 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.6% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 57.7% | 1.73 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Pogoń Siedlce | 42.3% |
| Draw | 30.3% | |
| Puszcza Niepołomice | 27.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 41.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 58.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48.0% |
| No | 52.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 57.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Pogoń Siedlce win | 20.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.2% | |
| Loss | 57.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.3% |
| 1-0 | 11.5% | |
| 0-0 | 11.0% |
Pogoń Siedlce vs Puszcza Niepołomice stats
Pogoń Siedlce and Puszcza Niepołomice recent form
| Pogoń Siedlce |
WDWWLW |
| Puszcza Niepołomice |
LLWWLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Pogoń Siedlce and Puszcza Niepołomice season so far
Pogoń Siedlce record
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
Puszcza Niepołomice record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Pogoń Siedlce vs Puszcza Niepołomice head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-06 | Puszcza Niepołomice | Pogoń Siedlce | I Liga | 3-0 |
| 2025-08-24 | Pogoń Siedlce | Puszcza Niepołomice | I Liga | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Pogoń Siedlce vs Puszcza Niepołomice odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 32.0%, draw 28.4%, away 39.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.82 | 3.08 | 2.38 |
| Bet365 | 2.80 | 3.10 | 2.25 |
| BetVictor | 2.75 | 3.20 | 2.40 |
| Betano | 3.10 | 3.20 | 2.25 |
| Betfair | 3.00 | 3.25 | 2.20 |
| Dafabet | 3.10 | 3.20 | 2.26 |
| Marathonbet | 2.76 | 3.08 | 2.36 |
| Pinnacle | 2.89 | 3.29 | 2.51 |
| SBO | 2.80 | 2.93 | 2.12 |
| Superbet | 3.05 | 3.20 | 2.27 |
| Unibet | 2.80 | 3.15 | 2.28 |
| William Hill | 2.75 | 3.00 | 2.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .