I Liga · 2026-09-04T16:00:00Z UTC Full time ·Matchday 7

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Warta Poznań

1 – 0 Full time

37′			A. Wolczek
51′			A. WolczekP. Kusztal
52′			H. Uzoigwe
59′			J. Niewiadomski
60′			N. Niski
71′			N. NiskiJ. Jedrasik
71′			H. UzoigweM. Ruszkiewicz
71′			R. MajewskiD. Jaron
72′			K. Lysiak
76′			D. Jaron
78′			J. KendziaK. Wybieralski
78′			J. ApolinarskiK. Rychert
86′			J. ZbrogJ. Konstantyn
90′			P. Kusztal
90′			B. CiepielaH. Turski

Stadion Miejski, Grodzisk MazowieckiReferee: D. Krumplewski

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

36%

Draw

27%

Warta Poznań

37%

Confidence: Low · blended with market odds

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Warta Poznań overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Warta Poznań

model vs market on the 1X2

Probability	Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki	Draw	Warta Poznań
Model	37.0%	28.5%	34.5%
Market	35.7%	26.4%	37.9%
Final	36.0%	26.9%	37.0%
Edge	+1.4%	+2.0%	-3.4%

Confidence: Low

Why Warta Poznań

Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals

92%

2+ goals

76%

3+ goals

50%

No goals

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki and Warta Poznań expected goals

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

1.36

Warta Poznań

1.31

Total expected goals: 2.67

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki and Warta Poznań attack and defence ratings

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

Attack

0.90 -10%

Defence

1.03 +3%

Warta Poznań

Attack

0.93 -7%

Defence

0.96 -4%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Warta Poznań: result vs prediction

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 1 – 0 Warta Poznań

Market	Outcome
1X2 pick	✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick	✓ Correct
BTTS pick	✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 7 fixtures

I Liga

Nieciecza vs Lechia Gdansk — team news & stats · 2026-09-04
Miedz Legnica vs Chrobry Głogów · 2026-09-05
Stal Mielec v Odra Opole — match page · 2026-09-05
Stal Rzeszów vs Polonia Warszawa — team news & stats · 2026-09-05
Arka Gdynia vs ŁKS Łódź · 2026-09-06
Polonia Bytom v Podbeskidzie — match page · 2026-09-06
Ruch Chorzów vs Unia Skierniewice · 2026-09-07
Pogoń Siedlce vs Puszcza Niepołomice — team news & stats · 2026-10-15

Before and after this match

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki, previous: Podhale Nowy Targ – Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki, 2026-09-01
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki, next: Unia Skierniewice v Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki analysis
Warta Poznań, previous: Miedz Legnica – Warta Poznań, 2026-08-30
Warta Poznań, next: Warta Poznań vs Arka Gdynia prediction

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Warta Poznań markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market

Market	Model pick	Probability	Fair odds	Edge	Best price
1X2	Warta Poznań	37.0%	2.70	-3.4%	—
Over/Under 2.5	Under 2.5	50.2%	1.99	—	—
Both teams to score	Yes	55.4%	1.80	—	—
Double chance	12 (either side)	73.1%	1.37	—	—
Handicap -1	Loss	65.5%	1.53	—	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid

Market	Selection	Probability
1X2	Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki	36.0%
	Draw	26.9%
	Warta Poznań	37.0%
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	49.8%
	Under 2.5	50.2%
Both teams to score	Yes	55.4%
	No	44.6%
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	63.0%
	12 (either side)	73.1%
	X2 (draw or away)	64.0%
Handicap -1	Warta Poznań win	15.8%
	Push (exactly one goal)	18.7%
	Loss	65.5%
Correct score (top 3)	1-1	13.6%
	2-1	8.4%
	1-0	8.2%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Warta Poznań stats

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki and Warta Poznań recent form

newest first

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki	LDDDWW
Warta Poznań	LWLWLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki and Warta Poznań going into this match

league record before kick-off

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki record

They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.3 at home.
They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

Warta Poznań record

They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Warta Poznań head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Warta Poznań odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 35.7%, draw 26.4%, away 37.9%.

Bookmaker	1	X	2
10Bet	2.55	3.55	2.35
1xBet	2.54	3.44	2.35
Bet365	2.55	3.30	2.35
BetVictor	2.55	3.50	2.40
Betano	2.62	3.35	2.50
Betfair	2.55	3.60	2.30
Dafabet	2.60	3.50	2.50
Marathonbet	2.55	3.44	2.34
Pinnacle	2.71	3.66	2.45
SBO	2.20	3.13	2.52
Superbet	2.32	3.45	2.77
Unibet	2.35	3.35	2.50
William Hill	2.50	3.30	2.38

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.55 ▲ +0.25

X 3.44 ▼ -0.06

2 2.40 ▼ -0.31

9 snapshots recorded, from 2026-08-31T08:10:02Z.