Miedz Legnica
vs
Warta Poznań
2 – 1 Full time
Miedz Legnica vs Warta Poznań overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Miedz Legnica vs Warta Poznań
| Probability | Miedz Legnica | Draw | Warta Poznań |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47.9% | 30.3% | 21.8% |
| Market | 51.7% | 25.4% | 22.8% |
| Final | 50.8% | 26.6% | 22.6% |
| Edge | -3.9% | +4.9% | -1.0% |
Why Miedz Legnica
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.37 vs 0.84.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Miedz Legnica and Warta Poznań expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.21
Miedz Legnica and Warta Poznań attack and defence ratings
Miedz Legnica
Warta Poznań
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Miedz Legnica vs Warta Poznań: result vs prediction
Miedz Legnica 2 – 1 Warta Poznań
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
- Unia Skierniewice v Stal Rzeszów — match page
- Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Nieciecza — team news & stats
- Odra Opole vs ŁKS Łódź
- Puszcza Niepołomice v Podbeskidzie — match page
- Pogoń Siedlce vs Stal Mielec — team news & stats
- Polonia Warszawa vs Lechia Gdansk
- Arka Gdynia vs Polonia Bytom — team news & stats
- Chrobry Głogów vs Ruch Chorzów
Before and after this match
Miedz Legnica vs Warta Poznań markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Miedz Legnica | 50.8% | 1.97 | -3.9% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 62.1% | 1.61 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 56.4% | 1.77 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.4% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.1% | 1.92 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Miedz Legnica | 50.8% |
| Draw | 26.6% | |
| Warta Poznań | 22.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 37.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 62.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43.6% |
| No | 56.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 49.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Miedz Legnica win | 23.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.2% | |
| Loss | 52.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.9% |
| 1-0 | 13.8% | |
| 0-0 | 12.3% |
Miedz Legnica vs Warta Poznań stats
Miedz Legnica and Warta Poznań recent form
| Miedz Legnica |
WWLWDW |
| Warta Poznań |
WLWLWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Miedz Legnica and Warta Poznań going into this match
Miedz Legnica record
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
Warta Poznań record
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
Miedz Legnica vs Warta Poznań head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Miedz Legnica vs Warta Poznań odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 51.7%, draw 25.4%, away 22.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.76 | 3.54 | 4.01 |
| Betano | 1.80 | 3.55 | 4.20 |
| Betfair | 1.75 | 3.60 | 3.90 |
| Marathonbet | 1.74 | 3.54 | 3.94 |
| Pinnacle | 1.78 | 3.65 | 4.28 |
| William Hill | 1.75 | 3.70 | 3.70 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .