Polonia Warszawa
vs
Lechia Gdansk
2 – 4 Full time
Polonia Warszawa vs Lechia Gdansk overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Polonia Warszawa vs Lechia Gdansk
| Probability | Polonia Warszawa | Draw | Lechia Gdansk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 60.9% | 23.5% | 15.5% |
| Market | 61.7% | 21.0% | 17.3% |
| Final | 61.5% | 21.6% | 16.9% |
| Edge | -0.8% | +2.6% | -1.8% |
Why Polonia Warszawa
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.93 vs 0.89.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Polonia Warszawa and Lechia Gdansk expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.82
Polonia Warszawa and Lechia Gdansk attack and defence ratings
Polonia Warszawa
Lechia Gdansk
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Polonia Warszawa vs Lechia Gdansk: result vs prediction
Polonia Warszawa 2 – 4 Lechia Gdansk
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
- Unia Skierniewice v Stal Rzeszów — match page
- Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Nieciecza — team news & stats
- Odra Opole vs ŁKS Łódź
- Puszcza Niepołomice v Podbeskidzie — match page
- Pogoń Siedlce vs Stal Mielec — team news & stats
- Miedz Legnica v Warta Poznań — match page
- Arka Gdynia vs Polonia Bytom — team news & stats
- Chrobry Głogów vs Ruch Chorzów
Before and after this match
Polonia Warszawa vs Lechia Gdansk markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Polonia Warszawa | 61.5% | 1.63 | -0.8% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.4% | 1.87 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.2% | 1.95 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.1% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 39.1% | 2.56 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Polonia Warszawa | 61.5% |
| Draw | 21.6% | |
| Lechia Gdansk | 16.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 46.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.2% |
| No | 48.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 38.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Polonia Warszawa win | 37.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.6% | |
| Loss | 39.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.2% |
| 2-0 | 11.2% | |
| 1-0 | 10.6% |
Polonia Warszawa vs Lechia Gdansk stats
Polonia Warszawa and Lechia Gdansk recent form
| Polonia Warszawa |
WLDWWL |
| Lechia Gdansk |
WLDLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Polonia Warszawa and Lechia Gdansk going into this match
Polonia Warszawa record
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
Lechia Gdansk record
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 0.3 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
Polonia Warszawa vs Lechia Gdansk head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-24 | Lechia Gdansk | Polonia Warszawa | I Liga | 1-0 |
| 2023-10-31 | Polonia Warszawa | Lechia Gdansk | I Liga | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Polonia Warszawa vs Lechia Gdansk odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 61.7%, draw 21.0%, away 17.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.46 | 4.30 | 5.48 |
| Bet365 | 1.50 | 4.10 | 5.00 |
| Betano | 1.52 | 4.45 | 5.10 |
| Betfair | 1.44 | 4.40 | 5.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.51 | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.45 | 4.30 | 5.30 |
| Pinnacle | 1.54 | 4.57 | 4.85 |
| SBO | 1.40 | 3.96 | 5.03 |
| Superbet | 1.51 | 4.35 | 5.20 |
| Unibet | 1.38 | 4.30 | 6.10 |
| William Hill | 1.44 | 4.00 | 5.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .