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I Liga · Full time ·Matchday 5

Nieciecza vs Polonia Warszawa

1 – 3 Full time

Termalica Bruk-Bet Nieciecza, NiecieczaReferee: P. Lasyk

Nieciecza 37%
Draw 27%
Polonia Warszawa 36%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Nieciecza vs Polonia Warszawa overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Nieciecza vs Polonia Warszawa

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityNiecieczaDrawPolonia Warszawa
Model35.9%26.7%37.5%
Market37.1%27.0%36.0%
Final36.8%26.9%36.3%
Edge-1.2%-0.3%+1.5%

Confidence: Low

Why Nieciecza

  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Nieciecza ↓ / Polonia Warsza → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 6% 7% 1 6% 12% 9% 2 8% 6% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 94%
2+ goals 81%
3+ goals 57%
No goals 6%

Nieciecza and Polonia Warszawa expected goals

Nieciecza 1.47
Polonia Warszawa 1.51

Total expected goals: 2.97

Nieciecza and Polonia Warszawa attack and defence ratings

Nieciecza

Attack 1.02 +2%
Defence 1.19 +19%

Polonia Warszawa

Attack 0.92 -8%
Defence 0.91 -9%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Nieciecza vs Polonia Warszawa: result vs prediction

Nieciecza 1 – 3 Polonia Warszawa

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 5 fixtures

I Liga

Before and after this match

Nieciecza vs Polonia Warszawa markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Nieciecza 36.8% 2.72 -1.2% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 57.1% 1.75 — —
Both teams to score Yes 61.0% 1.64 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 73.1% 1.37 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 64.1% 1.56 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Nieciecza36.8%
Draw26.9%
Polonia Warszawa36.3%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.557.1%
Under 2.542.9%
Both teams to scoreYes61.0%
No39.0%
Double chance1X (home or draw)63.7%
12 (either side)73.1%
X2 (draw or away)63.2%
Handicap -1Nieciecza win17.5%
Push (exactly one goal)18.4%
Loss64.1%
Correct score (top 3)1-112.4%
1-28.5%
2-18.3%

Nieciecza vs Polonia Warszawa stats

Nieciecza and Polonia Warszawa recent form

newest first
Nieciecza LLWWWW
Polonia Warszawa LDWWLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Nieciecza and Polonia Warszawa going into this match

league record before kick-off

Nieciecza record

  • They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • 58% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Polonia Warszawa record

  • They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.

Nieciecza vs Polonia Warszawa head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Nieciecza vs Polonia Warszawa odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 37.1%, draw 27.0%, away 36.0%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.50 3.50 2.40
1xBet 2.42 3.32 2.53
888Sport 2.60 3.10 2.45
Bet365 2.45 3.40 2.50
BetVictor 2.45 3.40 2.55
Betano 2.55 3.40 2.55
Betfair 2.40 3.50 2.50
Dafabet 2.50 3.45 2.60
Marathonbet 2.42 3.32 2.53
Pinnacle 2.57 3.49 2.68
SBO 2.46 3.14 2.25
Superbet 2.50 3.35 2.62
Unibet 2.35 3.25 2.63
William Hill 2.45 3.20 2.50

Odds movement

Only one odds snapshot recorded so far — movement needs at least two.