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I Liga · Full time ·Matchday 5

Puszcza Niepołomice vs Unia Skierniewice

0 – 1 Full time

Referee: P. Idzik

Puszcza Niepołomice 43%
Draw 28%
Unia Skierniewice 29%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Puszcza Niepołomice vs Unia Skierniewice overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Puszcza Niepołomice vs Unia Skierniewice

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityPuszcza NiepołomiceDrawUnia Skierniewice
Model45.1%28.5%26.5%
Market42.3%27.4%30.3%
Final43.0%27.7%29.3%
Edge+2.8%+1.1%-3.9%

Confidence: Low

Why Puszcza Niepołomice

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.48 vs 1.08.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Puszcza Niepołomice below the model: +2.8 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Puszcza Niepoł ↓ / Unia Skierniew → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 9% 7% 1 10% 14% 2 8% 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 91%
2+ goals 74%
3+ goals 47%
No goals 9%

Puszcza Niepołomice and Unia Skierniewice expected goals

Puszcza Niepołomice 1.48
Unia Skierniewice 1.08

Total expected goals: 2.56

Puszcza Niepołomice and Unia Skierniewice attack and defence ratings

Puszcza Niepołomice

Attack 0.80 -20%
Defence 0.87 -13%

Unia Skierniewice

Attack 0.90 -10%
Defence 1.17 +17%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Puszcza Niepołomice vs Unia Skierniewice: result vs prediction

Puszcza Niepołomice 0 – 1 Unia Skierniewice

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 5 fixtures

I Liga

Before and after this match

Puszcza Niepołomice vs Unia Skierniewice markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Puszcza Niepołomice 43.0% 2.33 +2.8% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 52.8% 1.89 — —
Both teams to score Yes 52.3% 1.91 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 72.3% 1.38 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 54.8% 1.83 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Puszcza Niepołomice43.0%
Draw27.7%
Unia Skierniewice29.3%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.547.2%
Under 2.552.8%
Both teams to scoreYes52.3%
No47.7%
Double chance1X (home or draw)70.7%
12 (either side)72.3%
X2 (draw or away)57.0%
Handicap -1Puszcza Niepołomice win23.1%
Push (exactly one goal)22.1%
Loss54.8%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.6%
1-010.2%
2-19.1%

Puszcza Niepołomice vs Unia Skierniewice stats

Puszcza Niepołomice and Unia Skierniewice recent form

newest first
Puszcza Niepołomice LWLLLW
Unia Skierniewice LWDLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Puszcza Niepołomice and Unia Skierniewice going into this match

league record before kick-off

Puszcza Niepołomice record

  • They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 6 matches.
  • 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Unia Skierniewice record

  • They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Puszcza Niepołomice vs Unia Skierniewice head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Puszcza Niepołomice vs Unia Skierniewice odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 42.3%, draw 27.4%, away 30.3%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.13 3.32 3.04
888Sport 2.15 3.25 2.90
Bet365 2.15 3.20 3.00
BetVictor 2.15 3.40 3.00
Betano 2.20 3.35 3.05
Betfair 2.10 3.40 3.00
Dafabet 2.20 3.40 3.10
Marathonbet 2.11 3.32 2.99
Pinnacle 2.21 3.58 3.15
SBO 2.17 3.17 2.81
Superbet 2.20 3.30 3.10
Unibet 2.12 3.25 2.95
William Hill 2.15 3.25 2.90

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.15 —
X 3.32 —
2 3.00 ▲ +0.01

3 snapshots recorded, from .