Polonia Bytom
vs
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
2 – 2 Full time
Polonia Bytom vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Polonia Bytom vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
| Probability | Polonia Bytom | Draw | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38.7% | 24.5% | 36.8% |
| Market | 46.9% | 25.4% | 27.7% |
| Final | 44.8% | 25.2% | 30.0% |
| Edge | -8.2% | -0.9% | +9.1% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Polonia Bytom and Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.41
Polonia Bytom and Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki attack and defence ratings
Polonia Bytom
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Polonia Bytom vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki: result vs prediction
Polonia Bytom 2 – 2 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 5 fixtures
- Chrobry Głogów v Warta Poznań — match page
- Lechia Gdansk vs Pogoń Siedlce — team news & stats
- Nieciecza vs Polonia Warszawa
- Podbeskidzie v Odra Opole — match page
- Miedz Legnica vs Arka Gdynia
- Puszcza Niepołomice v Unia Skierniewice — match page
- ŁKS Łódź vs Stal Mielec — team news & stats
- Stal Rzeszów vs Ruch Chorzów
Before and after this match
Polonia Bytom vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Polonia Bytom | 44.8% | 2.23 | -8.2% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.2% | 1.51 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.9% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.8% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 61.3% | 1.63 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Polonia Bytom | 44.8% |
| Draw | 25.2% | |
| Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | 30.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 33.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.9% |
| No | 32.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 70.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 55.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Polonia Bytom win | 20.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.2% | |
| Loss | 61.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.6% |
| 2-1 | 8.3% | |
| 1-2 | 8.1% |
Polonia Bytom vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki stats
Polonia Bytom and Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki recent form
| Polonia Bytom |
LDLWLL |
| Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki |
DWWWDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Polonia Bytom and Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki going into this match
Polonia Bytom record
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.3 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Polonia Bytom vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-28 | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | Polonia Bytom | I Liga | 2-1 |
| 2025-08-20 | Polonia Bytom | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | I Liga | 3-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Polonia Bytom vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 46.9%, draw 25.4%, away 27.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.91 | 3.60 | 3.30 |
| 1xBet | 1.92 | 3.55 | 3.36 |
| 888Sport | 1.95 | 3.40 | 3.25 |
| Bet365 | 1.95 | 3.60 | 3.10 |
| BetVictor | 1.95 | 3.60 | 3.30 |
| Betano | 1.95 | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| Betfair | 1.90 | 3.60 | 3.30 |
| Dafabet | 2.01 | 3.65 | 3.30 |
| Marathonbet | 1.90 | 3.55 | 3.30 |
| Pinnacle | 1.98 | 3.84 | 3.49 |
| SBO | 1.96 | 3.16 | 2.92 |
| Superbet | 2.00 | 3.60 | 3.30 |
| Unibet | 2.04 | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| William Hill | 1.95 | 3.40 | 3.10 |