Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
vs
Nieciecza
2 – 2 Full time
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Nieciecza overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Nieciecza
| Probability | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | Draw | Nieciecza |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47.8% | 25.7% | 26.5% |
| Market | 35.2% | 26.3% | 38.5% |
| Final | 38.4% | 26.2% | 35.5% |
| Edge | +12.6% | -0.6% | -12.0% |
Why Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.74 vs 1.25.
- The market prices Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki below the model: +12.6 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki and Nieciecza expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.99
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki and Nieciecza attack and defence ratings
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Nieciecza
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Nieciecza: result vs prediction
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 2 – 2 Nieciecza
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
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- Puszcza Niepołomice v Podbeskidzie — match page
- Pogoń Siedlce vs Stal Mielec — team news & stats
- Polonia Warszawa vs Lechia Gdansk
- Miedz Legnica v Warta Poznań — match page
- Arka Gdynia vs Polonia Bytom — team news & stats
- Chrobry Głogów vs Ruch Chorzów
Before and after this match
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Nieciecza markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | 38.4% | 2.61 | +12.6% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.5% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.0% | 1.67 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.8% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.3% | 1.91 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | 38.4% |
| Draw | 26.2% | |
| Nieciecza | 35.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 42.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.0% |
| No | 40.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 64.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 61.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki win | 26.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.3% | |
| Loss | 52.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.0% |
| 2-1 | 9.5% | |
| 1-0 | 7.6% |
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Nieciecza stats
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki and Nieciecza recent form
| Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki |
DDWWWD |
| Nieciecza |
LLLWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki and Nieciecza going into this match
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.3 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Nieciecza record
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- 58% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Nieciecza head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Nieciecza odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 35.2%, draw 26.3%, away 38.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.60 | 3.50 | 2.35 |
| 1xBet | 2.54 | 3.48 | 2.33 |
| Bet365 | 2.60 | 3.25 | 2.35 |
| BetVictor | 2.60 | 3.50 | 2.38 |
| Betano | 2.62 | 3.50 | 2.42 |
| Betfair | 2.55 | 3.50 | 2.40 |
| Dafabet | 2.65 | 3.50 | 2.44 |
| Marathonbet | 2.54 | 3.48 | 2.33 |
| Pinnacle | 2.61 | 3.79 | 2.38 |
| SBO | 2.48 | 3.08 | 2.26 |
| Superbet | 2.65 | 3.40 | 2.42 |
| Unibet | 2.50 | 3.20 | 2.45 |
| William Hill | 2.60 | 3.30 | 2.38 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .