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Poland Cup · Full time ·Round of 64

Podhale Nowy Targ vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

3 – 1 Full time

9′A. Oshafi
26′K. Talar
46′R. Pecarka
50′P. Vosko
54′M. Surzyn
59′B. Mikolajczyk
61′H. Uzoigwe
61′J. ZbrogN. Niski
61′B. DembekD. Jaron
63′K. TalarL. Seweryn
63′A. NowakA. Brod
63′M. SurzynT. Kubik
67′K. Kargulewicz
73′K. KargulewiczJ. Niewiadomski
73′J. JedrasikM. Ruszkiewicz
74′S. SobczakMarcinho
82′D. KoltanskiN. Gozdecki
84′H. TurskiG. Gulczynski
90′M. Lipien

Stadion Mijeski im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego, Nowy Targ

Podhale Nowy Targ 36%
Draw 27%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 37%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Podhale Nowy Targ vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Podhale Nowy Targ vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityPodhale Nowy TargDrawPogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Model45.7%28.2%26.1%
Market32.9%26.4%40.7%
Final36.1%26.9%37.0%
Edge+12.8%+1.7%-14.6%

Confidence: Low

Why Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Podhale Nowy T ↓ / Pogoń Grod. Ma → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 9% 7% 1 10% 13% 2 8% 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 91%
2+ goals 74%
3+ goals 48%
No goals 9%

Podhale Nowy Targ and Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki expected goals

Podhale Nowy Targ 1.50
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 1.09

Total expected goals: 2.59

Podhale Nowy Targ and Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki attack and defence ratings

Podhale Nowy Targ

Attack 1.06 +6%
Defence 0.83 -17%

Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

Attack 0.91 -9%
Defence 0.95 -5%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Podhale Nowy Targ vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki: result vs prediction

Podhale Nowy Targ 3 – 1 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Round of 64 fixtures

Poland Cup

Before and after this match

Podhale Nowy Targ vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 37.0% 2.70 -14.6% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 52.0% 1.92 — —
Both teams to score Yes 52.8% 1.89 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 73.1% 1.37 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 73.7% 1.36 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Podhale Nowy Targ36.1%
Draw26.9%
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki37.0%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.548.0%
Under 2.552.0%
Both teams to scoreYes52.8%
No47.2%
Double chance1X (home or draw)63.0%
12 (either side)73.1%
X2 (draw or away)63.9%
Handicap -1Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki win10.6%
Push (exactly one goal)15.7%
Loss73.7%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.5%
1-010.0%
2-19.2%

Podhale Nowy Targ vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki stats

Podhale Nowy Targ and Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki recent form

newest first
Podhale Nowy Targ W
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki DDDWWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 1 completed matches.

Podhale Nowy Targ vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Podhale Nowy Targ vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 32.9%, draw 26.4%, away 40.7%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.75 3.30 2.20
1xBet 2.73 3.48 2.23
Bet365 2.88 3.30 2.15
BetVictor 2.80 3.40 2.25
Betano 2.75 3.35 2.25
Betfair 2.70 3.50 2.20
Dafabet 2.90 3.50 2.29
Marathonbet 2.68 3.48 2.21
Pinnacle 2.62 3.52 2.18
SBO 2.64 3.04 2.11
Superbet 2.67 3.30 2.42
Unibet 2.65 3.70 2.12
William Hill 2.80 3.25 2.25

Odds movement

Only one odds snapshot recorded so far — movement needs at least two.