Poland Cup · Full time ·Round of 64

Kluczevia Stargard vs Pogoń Siedlce

2 – 3 Full time

6′R. Obst
43′S. Kobusinski
45′M. Gawron
45′R. da Silva de Melo
46′N. ZielonkaM. Rosolek
46′R. MakowskiC. Demianiuk
52′E. Dzieciol
64′A. StasiakD. Yefimenko
64′R. ObstM. Kaczorek
64′S. KobusinskiD. Szuprytowski
70′M. Gawron
70′M. Gawron
74′D. Yefimenko
76′D. Jakubik
78′F. BalcewiczP. Baranowski
78′K. PietrzykF. Pach
83′S. Szczytniewski
83′D. JakubikK. Mis
83′M. MarzecP. Klimek
90′M. BakB. Jesionowski
90′S. Szczytniewski
91′S. SzczytniewskiL. Trepka
120′F. Kendzia

Stadion Miejski, Stargard

Kluczevia Stargard 31%
Draw 28%
Pogoń Siedlce 41%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Kluczevia Stargard vs Pogoń Siedlce overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Kluczevia Stargard vs Pogoń Siedlce

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityKluczevia StargardDrawPogoń Siedlce
Model41.5%29.6%29.0%
Market27.0%27.4%45.6%
Final30.6%27.9%41.5%
Edge+14.5%+2.2%-16.6%

Confidence: Low

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Kluczevia Star ↓ / Pogoń Siedlce → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 10% 8% 1 10% 14% 2 8% 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 90%
2+ goals 72%
3+ goals 44%
No goals 10%

Kluczevia Stargard and Pogoń Siedlce expected goals

Kluczevia Stargard 1.36
Pogoń Siedlce 1.09

Total expected goals: 2.45

Kluczevia Stargard and Pogoń Siedlce attack and defence ratings

Kluczevia Stargard

Attack 1.00 +0%
Defence 1.00 +0%

Pogoń Siedlce

Attack 0.76 -24%
Defence 0.90 -10%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Kluczevia Stargard vs Pogoń Siedlce: result vs prediction

Kluczevia Stargard 2 – 3 Pogoń Siedlce

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Round of 64 fixtures

Poland Cup

Before and after this match

Kluczevia Stargard vs Pogoń Siedlce markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Pogoń Siedlce 41.5% 2.41 -16.6% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 55.5% 1.80 — —
Both teams to score Yes 50.8% 1.97 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 72.1% 1.39 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 71.2% 1.40 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Kluczevia Stargard30.6%
Draw27.9%
Pogoń Siedlce41.5%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.544.5%
Under 2.555.5%
Both teams to scoreYes50.8%
No49.2%
Double chance1X (home or draw)58.5%
12 (either side)72.1%
X2 (draw or away)69.4%
Handicap -1Pogoń Siedlce win11.7%
Push (exactly one goal)17.1%
Loss71.2%
Correct score (top 3)1-114.1%
1-010.4%
0-09.9%

Kluczevia Stargard vs Pogoń Siedlce stats

Kluczevia Stargard and Pogoń Siedlce recent form

newest first
Kluczevia Stargard no matches on record
Pogoń Siedlce WLWDLD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Kluczevia Stargard vs Pogoń Siedlce head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Kluczevia Stargard vs Pogoń Siedlce odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 27.0%, draw 27.4%, away 45.6%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 3.42 3.26 1.99
Bet365 3.50 3.40 1.90
BetVictor 3.30 3.40 2.00
Betano 3.20 3.20 2.05
Betfair 3.30 3.50 1.91
Dafabet 3.35 3.35 2.11
Marathonbet 3.35 3.26 1.97
Pinnacle 3.31 3.20 1.96
SBO 2.97 2.99 1.97
Superbet 4.00 3.70 1.75
Unibet 3.60 3.30 1.86
William Hill 3.20 3.25 2.00

Odds movement

Only one odds snapshot recorded so far — movement needs at least two.