Poland Cup · Full time ·Round of 64

Siarka Tarnobrzeg vs Zaglebie Lubin

3 – 2 Full time

6′M. Urbanski
9′C. Popielec
12′P. Czerech
31′F. Zaczek
46′S. KarasinskiD. Michalski
46′F. KocabaJ. Kolan
46′S. LyczkoK. Nowogonski
46′C. PopielecM. Mlinaric
47′P. Peciak
54′M. Dziewiatowski
62′B. Waclawek
65′T. Pytlak
65′K. CzaplaS. Majewski
65′S. KaliniecA. Kromka
65′D. Michalski
71′M. UrbanskiA. Wozniak
75′D. Michalski
77′A. Kromka
88′B. BisF. Podkowa
90′A. Wozniak

Stadion Miejski

Siarka Tarnobrzeg 16%
Draw 22%
Zaglebie Lubin 62%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Siarka Tarnobrzeg vs Zaglebie Lubin overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Siarka Tarnobrzeg vs Zaglebie Lubin

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilitySiarka TarnobrzegDrawZaglebie Lubin
Model31.8%37.0%31.2%
Market10.5%17.5%72.0%
Final15.8%22.4%61.8%
Edge+21.4%+19.5%-40.9%

Confidence: Low

Why Zaglebie Lubin

  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Siarka Tarnobr ↓ / Zaglebie Lubin → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 20% 14% 1 15% 14% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 80%
2+ goals 51%
3+ goals 24%
No goals 20%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg and Zaglebie Lubin expected goals

Siarka Tarnobrzeg 0.84
Zaglebie Lubin 0.83

Total expected goals: 1.67

Siarka Tarnobrzeg and Zaglebie Lubin attack and defence ratings

Siarka Tarnobrzeg

Attack 0.83 -17%
Defence 0.95 -5%

Zaglebie Lubin

Attack 0.61 -39%
Defence 0.67 -33%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Siarka Tarnobrzeg vs Zaglebie Lubin: result vs prediction

Siarka Tarnobrzeg 3 – 2 Zaglebie Lubin

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Round of 64 fixtures

Poland Cup

Before and after this match

Siarka Tarnobrzeg vs Zaglebie Lubin markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Zaglebie Lubin 61.8% 1.62 -40.9% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 76.4% 1.31 — —
Both teams to score No 66.6% 1.50 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 84.2% 1.19 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 69.0% 1.45 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Siarka Tarnobrzeg15.8%
Draw22.4%
Zaglebie Lubin61.8%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.523.6%
Under 2.576.4%
Both teams to scoreYes33.4%
No66.6%
Double chance1X (home or draw)38.2%
12 (either side)77.6%
X2 (draw or away)84.2%
Handicap -1Zaglebie Lubin win10.7%
Push (exactly one goal)20.3%
Loss69.0%
Correct score (top 3)0-020.1%
1-014.5%
1-114.4%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg vs Zaglebie Lubin stats

Siarka Tarnobrzeg and Zaglebie Lubin recent form

newest first

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 1 completed matches.

Siarka Tarnobrzeg vs Zaglebie Lubin head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Siarka Tarnobrzeg vs Zaglebie Lubin odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 10.5%, draw 17.5%, away 72.0%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 8.60 4.75 1.25
1xBet 9.30 5.15 1.25
Bet365 7.50 6.50 1.22
BetVictor 10.50 5.50 1.22
Betano 8.00 4.80 1.29
Betfair 10.00 5.00 1.22
Dafabet 9.20 5.60 1.28
Marathonbet 8.90 5.15 1.24
Pinnacle 7.65 5.17 1.25
SBO 6.76 4.59 1.24
Superbet 8.10 6.10 1.23
Unibet 7.50 4.80 1.30
William Hill 9.50 4.80 1.25

Odds movement

Only one odds snapshot recorded so far — movement needs at least two.