Pogoń Siedlce
vs
Stal Mielec
2 – 0 Full time
Pogoń Siedlce vs Stal Mielec overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Pogoń Siedlce vs Stal Mielec
| Probability | Pogoń Siedlce | Draw | Stal Mielec |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 26.7% | 25.4% | 47.9% |
| Market | 31.1% | 27.5% | 41.4% |
| Final | 30.0% | 27.0% | 43.1% |
| Edge | -4.4% | -2.1% | +6.5% |
Why Stal Mielec
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.79 vs 1.29.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Stal Mielec below the model: +6.5 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Pogoń Siedlce and Stal Mielec expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.08
Pogoń Siedlce and Stal Mielec attack and defence ratings
Pogoń Siedlce
Stal Mielec
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Pogoń Siedlce vs Stal Mielec: result vs prediction
Pogoń Siedlce 2 – 0 Stal Mielec
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
- Unia Skierniewice v Stal Rzeszów — match page
- Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Nieciecza — team news & stats
- Odra Opole vs ŁKS Łódź
- Puszcza Niepołomice v Podbeskidzie — match page
- Polonia Warszawa vs Lechia Gdansk
- Miedz Legnica v Warta Poznań — match page
- Arka Gdynia vs Polonia Bytom — team news & stats
- Chrobry Głogów vs Ruch Chorzów
Before and after this match
Pogoń Siedlce vs Stal Mielec markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Stal Mielec | 43.1% | 2.32 | +6.5% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.2% | 1.69 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.3% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.0% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 51.9% | 1.93 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Pogoń Siedlce | 30.0% |
| Draw | 27.0% | |
| Stal Mielec | 43.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 40.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.3% |
| No | 38.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 56.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 70.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Stal Mielec win | 27.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.1% | |
| Loss | 51.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.7% |
| 1-2 | 9.5% | |
| 0-2 | 7.4% |
Pogoń Siedlce vs Stal Mielec stats
Pogoń Siedlce and Stal Mielec recent form
| Pogoń Siedlce |
LWDLDL |
| Stal Mielec |
LWDDWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Pogoń Siedlce and Stal Mielec going into this match
Pogoń Siedlce record
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
Stal Mielec record
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Pogoń Siedlce vs Stal Mielec head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-15 | Pogoń Siedlce | Stal Mielec | I Liga | 1-3 |
| 2025-11-08 | Stal Mielec | Pogoń Siedlce | I Liga | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Pogoń Siedlce vs Stal Mielec odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 31.1%, draw 27.5%, away 41.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.98 | 3.25 | 2.19 |
| Bet365 | 2.80 | 3.30 | 2.15 |
| Betano | 3.00 | 3.30 | 2.25 |
| Betfair | 2.88 | 3.40 | 2.15 |
| Dafabet | 2.90 | 3.40 | 2.25 |
| Marathonbet | 2.92 | 3.25 | 2.17 |
| Pinnacle | 3.01 | 3.41 | 2.27 |
| SBO | 2.64 | 3.07 | 2.14 |
| Superbet | 2.95 | 3.35 | 2.27 |
| Unibet | 3.25 | 3.35 | 1.95 |
| William Hill | 2.90 | 3.10 | 2.20 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .