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Poland Cup · Full time ·Round of 64

Górnik Łęczna vs Stal Mielec

3 – 3 Full time

21′B. Akhmedov
40′J. Novotny
46′P. PrajsnarN. Niedzwiedz
54′J. Myszor
60′J. NovotnyH. Antkowiak
60′B. KorbeckiM. Walski
61′P. TupajP. Kruszelnicki
61′K. SadlochaS. Musiolik
62′E. ZiobronK. Cybulski
65′N. Niedzwiedz
68′I. SwierkotE. Stadnicki
68′J. MyszorA. Deja
84′G. RogalaM. Holownia
84′K. SommerfeldK. Odolak
90′K. Odolak
90′N. Niedzwiedz
95′M. Stala
95′M. DomanskiK. Koscielny
104′H. Matynia
109′B. Akhmedov
111′S. Musiolik
116′O. Osipiuk
120′A. Deja
120′S. Musiolik
120′M. Walski
120′M. Holownia
120′H. Matynia
120′K. Odolak
120′H. Antkowiak
Górnik Łęczna 32%
Draw 26%
Stal Mielec 42%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Górnik Łęczna vs Stal Mielec overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Górnik Łęczna vs Stal Mielec

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityGórnik ŁęcznaDrawStal Mielec
Model31.0%24.5%44.5%
Market31.9%26.6%41.5%
Final31.7%26.1%42.2%
Edge-0.8%-2.1%+3.0%

Confidence: Low

Why Stal Mielec

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.85 vs 1.47.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Stal Mielec below the model: +3.0 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Górnik Łęczna ↓ / Stal Mielec → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 6% 6% 1 11% 9% 6% 2 7% 7% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 95%
2+ goals 85%
3+ goals 65%
No goals 5%

Górnik Łęczna and Stal Mielec expected goals

Górnik Łęczna 1.47
Stal Mielec 1.85

Total expected goals: 3.33

Górnik Łęczna and Stal Mielec attack and defence ratings

Górnik Łęczna

Attack 0.83 -17%
Defence 1.03 +3%

Stal Mielec

Attack 1.17 +17%
Defence 1.15 +15%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Górnik Łęczna vs Stal Mielec: result vs prediction

Górnik Łęczna 3 – 3 Stal Mielec

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Round of 64 fixtures

Poland Cup

Before and after this match

Górnik Łęczna vs Stal Mielec markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Stal Mielec 42.2% 2.37 +3.0% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 65.1% 1.54 — —
Both teams to score Yes 66.5% 1.50 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 73.9% 1.35 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 54.3% 1.84 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Górnik Łęczna31.7%
Draw26.1%
Stal Mielec42.2%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.565.1%
Under 2.534.9%
Both teams to scoreYes66.5%
No33.5%
Double chance1X (home or draw)57.8%
12 (either side)73.9%
X2 (draw or away)68.3%
Handicap -1Stal Mielec win25.7%
Push (exactly one goal)20.0%
Loss54.3%
Correct score (top 3)1-110.7%
1-29.0%
2-17.4%

Górnik Łęczna vs Stal Mielec stats

Górnik Łęczna and Stal Mielec recent form

newest first
Górnik Łęczna WLLLLD
Stal Mielec LLWDDW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Górnik Łęczna vs Stal Mielec head-to-head

Last 4 meetings

1Górnik Łęczna wins 2Draws 1Stal Mielec wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-02-13Górnik ŁęcznaStal MielecI Liga1-1
2025-08-09Stal MielecGórnik ŁęcznaI Liga1-1
2022-02-26Górnik ŁęcznaStal MielecEkstraklasa2-0
2021-08-27Stal MielecGórnik ŁęcznaEkstraklasa2-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Górnik Łęczna vs Stal Mielec odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 31.9%, draw 26.6%, away 41.5%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.70 3.45 2.15
1xBet 2.95 3.30 2.18
Bet365 2.80 3.50 2.10
BetVictor 2.80 3.60 2.15
Betano 2.85 3.35 2.15
Betfair 2.75 3.60 2.15
Dafabet 2.90 3.55 2.26
Marathonbet 2.89 3.30 2.16
Pinnacle 2.86 3.26 2.13
SBO 2.53 3.09 2.06
Superbet 2.65 3.35 2.42
Unibet 2.75 3.25 2.23
William Hill 2.90 3.25 2.15

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.80 ▲ +0.22
X 3.35 ▲ +0.05
2 2.15 ▼ -0.26

3 snapshots recorded, from .