Pogoń Siedlce
vs
Stal Rzeszów
Garuda Lions Prediction: Pogoń Siedlce
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
Pogoń Siedlce vs Stal Rzeszów overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Pogoń Siedlce vs Stal Rzeszów
| Probability | Pogoń Siedlce | Draw | Stal Rzeszów |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34.8% | 28.6% | 36.7% |
| Market | 40.4% | 27.2% | 32.4% |
| Final | 39.0% | 27.5% | 33.5% |
| Edge | -5.6% | +1.4% | +4.2% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.41, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Pogoń Siedlce vs Stal Rzeszów match preview
Pogoń Siedlce will face Stal Rzeszów in their upcoming I Liga match on October 18, 2026. The probabilities from our model suggest a 40% chance of a Pogoń Siedlce victory, while Stal Rzeszów holds a 33% chance, and a draw is estimated at 28%. The expected goals for Pogoń Siedlce is 1.30, slightly lower than Stal Rzeszów's 1.35. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Pogoń Siedlce, with a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% likelihood of both teams scoring.
In terms of recent form, Pogoń Siedlce has recorded two wins, two draws, and a loss in their last five matches, while Stal Rzeszów is on a strong run with six consecutive wins. Historically, Pogoń Siedlce has not won against Stal Rzeszów in their last two encounters, with one draw and one loss. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Pogoń Siedlce and Stal Rzeszów expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.65
Pogoń Siedlce and Stal Rzeszów attack and defence ratings
Pogoń Siedlce
Stal Rzeszów
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Warta Poznań v Unia Skierniewice — match page
- Ruch Chorzów v Odra Opole — match page
- Miedz Legnica v Stal Mielec — match page
- Polonia Bytom vs Chrobry Głogów — team news & stats
- Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Polonia Warszawa
- ŁKS Łódź vs Podbeskidzie — team news & stats
- Lechia Gdansk vs Arka Gdynia — team news & stats
- Nieciecza vs Puszcza Niepołomice
Before and after this match
Pogoń Siedlce vs Stal Rzeszów markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Pogoń Siedlce | 39.0% | 2.57 | -5.6% | 2.41 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 50.6% | 1.98 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.2% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.5% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 65.2% | 1.53 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Pogoń Siedlce | 39.0% |
| Draw | 27.5% | |
| Stal Rzeszów | 33.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 50.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.2% |
| No | 44.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 66.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 61.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Pogoń Siedlce win | 16.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.8% | |
| Loss | 65.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.6% |
| 1-2 | 8.3% | |
| 0-0 | 8.3% |
Pogoń Siedlce vs Stal Rzeszów stats
Pogoń Siedlce and Stal Rzeszów recent form
| Pogoń Siedlce |
LLWDWW |
| Stal Rzeszów |
LWWWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Pogoń Siedlce and Stal Rzeszów season so far
Pogoń Siedlce record
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
Stal Rzeszów record
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 48% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Pogoń Siedlce vs Stal Rzeszów head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | Pogoń Siedlce | Stal Rzeszów | I Liga | 1-2 |
| 2025-11-02 | Stal Rzeszów | Pogoń Siedlce | I Liga | 1-1 |
| 2025-03-30 | Stal Rzeszów | Pogoń Siedlce | I Liga | 2-4 |
| 2024-09-01 | Pogoń Siedlce | Stal Rzeszów | I Liga | 1-1 |
| 2022-05-01 | Pogoń Siedlce | Stal Rzeszów | II Liga - East | 1-4 |
| 2021-10-23 | Stal Rzeszów | Pogoń Siedlce | II Liga - East | 3-0 |
| 2021-04-07 | Stal Rzeszów | Pogoń Siedlce | II Liga - East | 1-5 |
| 2020-09-05 | Pogoń Siedlce | Stal Rzeszów | II Liga - East | 0-2 |
| 2019-11-17 | Pogoń Siedlce | Stal Rzeszów | II Liga - East | 2-1 |
| 2019-07-27 | Stal Rzeszów | Pogoń Siedlce | II Liga - East | 3-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Pogoń Siedlce vs Stal Rzeszów odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 40.9%, draw 27.3%, away 31.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.26 | 3.34 | 2.74 |
| Bet365 | 2.15 | 3.25 | 2.90 |
| BetVictor | 2.20 | 3.40 | 2.88 |
| Betano | 2.25 | 3.35 | 3.00 |
| Betfair | 2.15 | 3.40 | 2.88 |
| Dafabet | 2.22 | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| Marathonbet | 2.24 | 3.34 | 2.68 |
| Pinnacle | 2.41 | 3.40 | 2.80 |
| William Hill | 2.30 | 3.10 | 2.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .