Odra Opole
vs
Pogoń Siedlce
Garuda Lions Prediction: Odra Opole
1 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Odra Opole is the favourite, not a value bet.
Odra Opole vs Pogoń Siedlce overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Odra Opole vs Pogoń Siedlce
| Probability | Odra Opole | Draw | Pogoń Siedlce |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38.6% | 31.3% | 30.1% |
| Market | 45.8% | 28.0% | 26.2% |
| Final | 44.0% | 28.8% | 27.2% |
| Edge | -1.8% | +0.8% | +1.0% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.06, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.3% per unit staked (our 44.0% × 2.06 − 1).
Odra Opole vs Pogoń Siedlce match preview
Odra Opole is set to face Pogoń Siedlce in an I Liga matchup, with kickoff scheduled for October 25, 2026. According to our model, Odra Opole has a 44% probability of winning, while the chances for a draw and a Pogoń Siedlce victory stand at 29% and 27%, respectively. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0 in favor of Odra Opole, with a probability of 11%. Expected goals are calculated at 1.21 for Odra Opole and 1.04 for Pogoń Siedlce.
In terms of recent form, Odra Opole has recorded a mixed set of results with two wins, two losses, and a draw in their last five matches. Pogoń Siedlce, on the other hand, has also shown inconsistency, with two losses, one win, and a draw in their recent outings. Historically, Odra Opole has dominated their head-to-head encounters, winning all four of their last matches against Pogoń Siedlce.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Odra Opole and Pogoń Siedlce expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.25
Odra Opole and Pogoń Siedlce attack and defence ratings
Odra Opole
Pogoń Siedlce
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
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- Arka Gdynia v Nieciecza — match page
- Stal Mielec vs Chrobry Głogów — team news & stats
- Unia Skierniewice vs Polonia Bytom — team news & stats
- Puszcza Niepołomice v Lechia Gdansk — match page
- Ruch Chorzów v Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki — match page
- Podbeskidzie vs Stal Rzeszów
- Warta Poznań vs ŁKS Łódź
Before and after this match
Odra Opole vs Pogoń Siedlce markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Odra Opole | 44.0% | 2.27 | -1.8% | 2.06 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 60.9% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 53.3% | 1.88 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.8% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 61.4% | 1.63 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Odra Opole | 44.0% |
| Draw | 28.8% | |
| Pogoń Siedlce | 27.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 60.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46.7% |
| No | 53.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 56.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Odra Opole win | 17.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.3% | |
| Loss | 61.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.6% |
| 0-0 | 11.9% | |
| 1-0 | 11.4% |
Odra Opole vs Pogoń Siedlce stats
Odra Opole and Pogoń Siedlce recent form
| Odra Opole |
LWLLDW |
| Pogoń Siedlce |
LLLWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Odra Opole and Pogoń Siedlce season so far
Odra Opole record
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 11 matches.
Pogoń Siedlce record
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
Odra Opole vs Pogoń Siedlce head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-06 | Odra Opole | Pogoń Siedlce | I Liga | 1-0 |
| 2025-08-03 | Pogoń Siedlce | Odra Opole | I Liga | 0-1 |
| 2024-12-08 | Pogoń Siedlce | Odra Opole | I Liga | 0-1 |
| 2024-07-28 | Odra Opole | Pogoń Siedlce | I Liga | 4-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Odra Opole vs Pogoń Siedlce odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 46.1%, draw 27.8%, away 26.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.90 | 3.28 | 3.64 |
| Bet365 | 1.90 | 3.25 | 3.50 |
| BetVictor | 2.00 | 3.25 | 3.50 |
| Betano | 2.02 | 3.30 | 3.55 |
| Betfair | 1.95 | 3.30 | 3.50 |
| Dafabet | 2.06 | 3.30 | 3.50 |
| Marathonbet | 1.88 | 3.28 | 3.55 |
| Pinnacle | 2.05 | 3.36 | 3.75 |
| SBO | 1.96 | 2.93 | 3.15 |
| William Hill | 2.00 | 3.00 | 3.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .