Arka Gdynia
vs
Nieciecza
Garuda Lions Prediction: Nieciecza
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Arka Gdynia vs Nieciecza overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Arka Gdynia vs Nieciecza
| Probability | Arka Gdynia | Draw | Nieciecza |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31.8% | 25.9% | 42.3% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 31.8% | 25.9% | 42.3% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Nieciecza
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Arka Gdynia vs Nieciecza match preview
Arka Gdynia faces Nieciecza in an I Liga matchup where the probabilities indicate a competitive contest. Our model assigns a 32% chance of victory for Arka Gdynia, while Nieciecza is favored at 42%, with a 26% likelihood of a draw. The expected goals suggest a close game, with Arka Gdynia at 1.42 and Nieciecza at 1.66. The most likely scoreline is predicted to be 1-2 in favor of Nieciecza.
In terms of recent form, Arka Gdynia has struggled with three consecutive losses followed by two draws, whereas Nieciecza is on a strong run, with four wins in their last five matches, including a draw. Additionally, there is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% probability that both teams will score, indicating an expectation for an engaging match.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Arka Gdynia and Nieciecza expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.09
Arka Gdynia and Nieciecza attack and defence ratings
Arka Gdynia
Nieciecza
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Arka Gdynia vs Nieciecza markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nieciecza | 42.3% | 2.36 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.6% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.6% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.1% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 57.7% | 1.73 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Arka Gdynia | 31.8% |
| Draw | 25.9% | |
| Nieciecza | 42.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 40.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.6% |
| No | 37.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 57.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 68.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Nieciecza win | 22.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.8% | |
| Loss | 57.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.9% |
| 1-2 | 9.0% | |
| 2-1 | 7.7% |
Arka Gdynia vs Nieciecza stats
Arka Gdynia and Nieciecza recent form
| Arka Gdynia |
LLLDWD |
| Nieciecza |
DWWWWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Arka Gdynia and Nieciecza season so far
Arka Gdynia record
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
Nieciecza record
- They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Arka Gdynia vs Nieciecza head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-18 | Arka Gdynia | Nieciecza | Ekstraklasa | 2-3 |
| 2025-11-21 | Nieciecza | Arka Gdynia | Ekstraklasa | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.