Warta Poznań
vs
ŁKS Łódź
Garuda Lions Prediction: ŁKS Łódź
0 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — ŁKS Łódź is the favourite, not a value bet.
Warta Poznań vs ŁKS Łódź overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Warta Poznań vs ŁKS Łódź
| Probability | Warta Poznań | Draw | ŁKS Łódź |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41.7% | 32.0% | 26.3% |
| Market | 33.0% | 27.3% | 39.7% |
| Final | 35.2% | 28.5% | 36.4% |
| Edge | +2.2% | +1.2% | -3.4% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.40, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -12.7% per unit staked (our 36.4% × 2.40 − 1).
Warta Poznań vs ŁKS Łódź match preview
Warta Poznań faces ŁKS Łódź in an I Liga match with both teams showing mixed recent form. Warta Poznań has recorded two wins and four losses in their last six matches, while ŁKS Łódź has achieved two wins, one draw, and three losses in the same period. According to our model, Warta Poznań has a 35% chance of winning, while ŁKS Łódź stands at 36%, with a 29% probability of a draw.
The expected goals for Warta Poznań is 1.21, compared to ŁKS Łódź's 0.91, suggesting a slight advantage for the home side in terms of offensive potential. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 0-1, occurring at a rate of 10%. Additionally, there is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% probability that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Warta Poznań and ŁKS Łódź expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.12
Warta Poznań and ŁKS Łódź attack and defence ratings
Warta Poznań
ŁKS Łódź
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
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- Arka Gdynia v Nieciecza — match page
- Stal Mielec vs Chrobry Głogów — team news & stats
- Unia Skierniewice vs Polonia Bytom — team news & stats
- Puszcza Niepołomice v Lechia Gdansk — match page
- Odra Opole vs Pogoń Siedlce — team news & stats
- Ruch Chorzów v Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki — match page
- Podbeskidzie vs Stal Rzeszów
Before and after this match
Warta Poznań vs ŁKS Łódź markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ŁKS Łódź | 36.4% | 2.75 | -3.4% | 2.40 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 64.5% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 56.8% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.5% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 73.7% | 1.36 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Warta Poznań | 35.2% |
| Draw | 28.5% | |
| ŁKS Łódź | 36.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 35.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 64.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43.2% |
| No | 56.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 63.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 64.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | ŁKS Łódź win | 9.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16.8% | |
| Loss | 73.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.5% |
| 0-0 | 13.4% | |
| 1-0 | 13.2% |
Warta Poznań vs ŁKS Łódź stats
Warta Poznań and ŁKS Łódź recent form
| Warta Poznań |
WLWWLL |
| ŁKS Łódź |
WLLWDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Warta Poznań and ŁKS Łódź season so far
Warta Poznań record
- They have won 6 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
ŁKS Łódź record
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
Warta Poznań vs ŁKS Łódź head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-07 | ŁKS Łódź | Warta Poznań | I Liga | 3-1 |
| 2024-08-20 | Warta Poznań | ŁKS Łódź | I Liga | 2-4 |
| 2024-03-11 | Warta Poznań | ŁKS Łódź | Ekstraklasa | 0-1 |
| 2023-09-01 | ŁKS Łódź | Warta Poznań | Ekstraklasa | 0-2 |
| 2019-03-16 | ŁKS Łódź | Warta Poznań | I Liga | 3-0 |
| 2018-08-25 | Warta Poznań | ŁKS Łódź | I Liga | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Warta Poznań vs ŁKS Łódź odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 33.0%, draw 27.4%, away 39.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.79 | 3.24 | 2.28 |
| Bet365 | 2.62 | 3.30 | 2.30 |
| BetVictor | 2.75 | 3.40 | 2.30 |
| Betano | 2.77 | 3.35 | 2.40 |
| Betfair | 2.75 | 3.40 | 2.30 |
| Dafabet | 2.80 | 3.45 | 2.38 |
| Marathonbet | 2.72 | 3.24 | 2.26 |
| Pinnacle | 2.88 | 3.49 | 2.31 |
| SBO | 2.53 | 3.05 | 2.23 |
| William Hill | 2.80 | 3.20 | 2.25 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .