Polonia Warszawa
vs
Miedz Legnica
Garuda Lions Prediction: Polonia Warszawa
1 β 0 Predicted score Β· 11% model probability
Polonia Warszawa vs Miedz Legnica overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Polonia Warszawa vs Miedz Legnica
| Probability | Polonia Warszawa | Draw | Miedz Legnica |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39.6% | 30.3% | 30.1% |
| Market | β | β | β |
| Final | 39.6% | 30.3% | 30.1% |
| Edge | β | β | β |
Why Polonia Warszawa
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Polonia Warszawa vs Miedz Legnica match preview
Polonia Warszawa faces Miedz Legnica in an I Liga clash on October 23, 2026. According to our model, Polonia Warszawa has a 44% chance of winning, while Miedz Legnica stands at 26%, and the likelihood of a draw is 29%. The expected goals for Polonia Warszawa are 1.43, compared to Miedz Legnica's 1.05. The most probable scoreline is 1-0, with a 11% chance of occurring.
In terms of recent form, Polonia Warszawa has recorded two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches, while Miedz Legnica has struggled with four losses and one draw in the same period. Notably, in their last two encounters, neither team has secured a win, with Polonia Warszawa and Miedz Legnica each recording two draws. The probability of both teams scoring stands at 51%, and there is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Polonia Warszawa and Miedz Legnica expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.37
Polonia Warszawa and Miedz Legnica attack and defence ratings
Polonia Warszawa
Miedz Legnica
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Polonia Warszawa vs Miedz Legnica markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Polonia Warszawa | 39.6% | 2.53 | β | β |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 57.9% | 1.73 | β | β |
| Both teams to score | No | 50.9% | 1.96 | β | β |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 69.9% | 1.43 | β | β |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 60.4% | 1.65 | β | β |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Polonia Warszawa | 39.6% |
| Draw | 30.3% | |
| Miedz Legnica | 30.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 57.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.1% |
| No | 50.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 69.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 60.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Polonia Warszawa win | 18.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.2% | |
| Loss | 60.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.4% |
| 1-0 | 10.7% | |
| 0-0 | 10.7% |
Polonia Warszawa vs Miedz Legnica stats
Polonia Warszawa and Miedz Legnica recent form
| Polonia Warszawa |
WWWDLW |
| Miedz Legnica |
WLLLDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Polonia Warszawa and Miedz Legnica season so far
Polonia Warszawa record
- They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Miedz Legnica record
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Polonia Warszawa vs Miedz Legnica head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Polonia Warszawa | Miedz Legnica | I Liga | 1-1 |
| 2025-09-14 | Miedz Legnica | Polonia Warszawa | I Liga | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.