Stal Mielec
vs
Chrobry Głogów
Garuda Lions Prediction: Stal Mielec
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Stal Mielec vs Chrobry Głogów overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Stal Mielec vs Chrobry Głogów
| Probability | Stal Mielec | Draw | Chrobry Głogów |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39.3% | 25.4% | 35.3% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 39.3% | 25.4% | 35.3% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Stal Mielec vs Chrobry Głogów match preview
Stal Mielec faces Chrobry Głogów in their upcoming I Liga match, with Stal Mielec holding a 39% probability of victory compared to Chrobry Głogów's 35%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Stal Mielec, with a 9% likelihood. Both teams have shown a tendency to score, as indicated by a 65% probability for both teams to find the net and a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored.
In terms of recent form, Stal Mielec has had mixed results with one win in their last six matches, while Chrobry Głogów has struggled, recording three losses in their last five games. The expected goals for Stal Mielec stand at 1.65, while Chrobry Głogów is slightly behind with 1.56. Historically, Chrobry Głogów has dominated their recent encounters, winning both of the last two matches against Stal Mielec.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Stal Mielec and Chrobry Głogów expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.22
Stal Mielec and Chrobry Głogów attack and defence ratings
Stal Mielec
Chrobry Głogów
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Stal Mielec vs Chrobry Głogów markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Stal Mielec | 39.3% | 2.55 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.4% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.0% | 1.54 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.6% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 60.7% | 1.65 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Stal Mielec | 39.3% |
| Draw | 25.4% | |
| Chrobry Głogów | 35.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 37.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.0% |
| No | 35.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 64.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 60.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Stal Mielec win | 20.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.8% | |
| Loss | 60.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.4% |
| 2-1 | 8.6% | |
| 1-2 | 8.1% |
Stal Mielec vs Chrobry Głogów stats
Stal Mielec and Chrobry Głogów recent form
| Stal Mielec |
LWLLDD |
| Chrobry Głogów |
LLLDDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Stal Mielec and Chrobry Głogów season so far
Stal Mielec record
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Chrobry Głogów record
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 10 matches.
- 62% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Stal Mielec vs Chrobry Głogów head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-17 | Chrobry Głogów | Stal Mielec | I Liga | 2-1 |
| 2025-10-03 | Stal Mielec | Chrobry Głogów | I Liga | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.