Lechia Gdansk
vs
Arka Gdynia
Garuda Lions Prediction: Lechia Gdansk
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Lechia Gdansk vs Arka Gdynia overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Lechia Gdansk vs Arka Gdynia
| Probability | Lechia Gdansk | Draw | Arka Gdynia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55.8% | 22.6% | 21.6% |
| Market | 41.8% | 25.9% | 32.2% |
| Final | 45.3% | 25.1% | 29.6% |
| Edge | +14.0% | -3.4% | -10.6% |
Why Lechia Gdansk
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.12 vs 1.28.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Lechia Gdansk below the model: +14.0 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.25, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Lechia Gdansk vs Arka Gdynia match preview
Lechia Gdansk enters this match with a strong recent form, having won four of their last six games, while Arka Gdynia has struggled, recording three losses in their last five matches. According to our model, Lechia Gdansk holds a 54% probability of winning, with a projected scoreline of 2-1 being the most likely outcome at 9%. The expected goals for Lechia Gdansk is 2.11, compared to Arka Gdynia's 1.34.
Both teams are expected to score, with a probability of 66%, and there is a 67% chance that the match will feature over 2.5 goals. In their last two head-to-head encounters, Lechia Gdansk has secured one win and one draw against Arka Gdynia, who has yet to claim a victory in this matchup.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Lechia Gdansk and Arka Gdynia expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.40
Lechia Gdansk and Arka Gdynia attack and defence ratings
Lechia Gdansk
Arka Gdynia
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Warta Poznań v Unia Skierniewice — match page
- Ruch Chorzów v Odra Opole — match page
- Miedz Legnica v Stal Mielec — match page
- Polonia Bytom vs Chrobry Głogów — team news & stats
- Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Polonia Warszawa
- ŁKS Łódź vs Podbeskidzie — team news & stats
- Pogoń Siedlce vs Stal Rzeszów
- Nieciecza vs Puszcza Niepołomice
Before and after this match
Lechia Gdansk vs Arka Gdynia markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lechia Gdansk | 45.3% | 2.21 | +14.0% | 2.25 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.0% | 1.52 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.4% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.9% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 44.2% | 2.26 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lechia Gdansk | 45.3% |
| Draw | 25.1% | |
| Arka Gdynia | 29.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 34.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.4% |
| No | 35.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 70.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 54.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Lechia Gdansk win | 34.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.3% | |
| Loss | 44.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.0% |
| 2-1 | 9.6% | |
| 2-0 | 7.5% |
Lechia Gdansk vs Arka Gdynia stats
Lechia Gdansk and Arka Gdynia recent form
| Lechia Gdansk |
WWWLWW |
| Arka Gdynia |
LLLDWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Lechia Gdansk and Arka Gdynia season so far
Lechia Gdansk record
- They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
Arka Gdynia record
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
Lechia Gdansk vs Arka Gdynia head-to-head
Last 8 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-27 | Arka Gdynia | Lechia Gdansk | Ekstraklasa | 2-2 |
| 2025-08-24 | Lechia Gdansk | Arka Gdynia | Ekstraklasa | 1-0 |
| 2024-05-19 | Lechia Gdansk | Arka Gdynia | I Liga | 2-1 |
| 2023-11-24 | Arka Gdynia | Lechia Gdansk | I Liga | 1-0 |
| 2020-05-31 | Lechia Gdansk | Arka Gdynia | Ekstraklasa | 4-3 |
| 2019-10-20 | Arka Gdynia | Lechia Gdansk | Ekstraklasa | 2-2 |
| 2019-04-02 | Arka Gdynia | Lechia Gdansk | Ekstraklasa | 0-0 |
| 2018-10-27 | Lechia Gdansk | Arka Gdynia | Ekstraklasa | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Lechia Gdansk vs Arka Gdynia odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 41.8%, draw 25.9%, away 32.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.17 | 3.48 | 2.79 |
| Bet365 | 2.15 | 3.30 | 2.80 |
| BetVictor | 2.20 | 3.50 | 2.80 |
| Betano | 2.18 | 3.50 | 2.95 |
| Betfair | 2.15 | 3.60 | 2.75 |
| Dafabet | 2.17 | 3.50 | 3.00 |
| Marathonbet | 2.15 | 3.48 | 2.73 |
| Pinnacle | 2.25 | 3.62 | 2.90 |
| SBO | 2.04 | 3.22 | 2.71 |
| William Hill | 2.15 | 3.30 | 2.88 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .