Stal Rzeszów
vs
Lechia Gdansk
Garuda Lions Prediction: Lechia Gdansk
1 – 2 Predicted score · 8% model probability
Stal Rzeszów vs Lechia Gdansk overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Stal Rzeszów vs Lechia Gdansk
| Probability | Stal Rzeszów | Draw | Lechia Gdansk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37.4% | 23.5% | 39.1% |
| Market | 31.5% | 25.2% | 43.2% |
| Final | 33.0% | 24.8% | 42.2% |
| Edge | +5.9% | -1.7% | -4.2% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.20, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Stal Rzeszów vs Lechia Gdansk match preview
Stal Rzeszów faces Lechia Gdansk in an I Liga matchup on October 12, 2026. The model probabilities suggest a close contest, with Stal Rzeszów at 37% to win, Lechia Gdansk slightly ahead at 39%, and a draw at 23%. The expected goals indicate a competitive game, with Stal Rzeszów at 1.81 and Lechia Gdansk at 1.85.
Both teams have shown strong recent form, with Stal Rzeszów winning four of their last six matches and Lechia Gdansk winning five of their last six. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring stands at 71%, hinting at an attacking approach from both sides. The most probable scoreline according to the model is 1-2, with an 8% likelihood.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Stal Rzeszów and Lechia Gdansk expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.65
Stal Rzeszów and Lechia Gdansk attack and defence ratings
Stal Rzeszów
Lechia Gdansk
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Podbeskidzie v Pogoń Siedlce — match page
- Arka Gdynia v Polonia Warszawa — match page
- Chrobry Głogów vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki — team news & stats
- Unia Skierniewice vs Nieciecza
- Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań
- ŁKS Łódź v Ruch Chorzów — match page
- Puszcza Niepołomice vs Polonia Bytom — team news & stats
- Odra Opole vs Miedz Legnica
Before and after this match
Stal Rzeszów vs Lechia Gdansk markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lechia Gdansk | 42.2% | 2.37 | -4.2% | 2.20 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70.7% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71.3% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.2% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 60.9% | 1.64 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Stal Rzeszów | 33.0% |
| Draw | 24.8% | |
| Lechia Gdansk | 42.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 29.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71.3% |
| No | 28.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 57.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 67.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Lechia Gdansk win | 21.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.8% | |
| Loss | 60.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.5% |
| 1-2 | 8.0% | |
| 2-1 | 7.8% |
Stal Rzeszów vs Lechia Gdansk stats
Stal Rzeszów and Lechia Gdansk recent form
| Stal Rzeszów |
WWWWWL |
| Lechia Gdansk |
WWLWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Stal Rzeszów and Lechia Gdansk season so far
Stal Rzeszów record
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- 48% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Lechia Gdansk record
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Stal Rzeszów vs Lechia Gdansk head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Stal Rzeszów vs Lechia Gdansk odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 31.5%, draw 25.2%, away 43.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.90 | 3.54 | 2.09 |
| BetVictor | 2.90 | 3.70 | 2.10 |
| Betano | 2.80 | 3.75 | 2.20 |
| Betfair | 2.88 | 3.60 | 2.05 |
| Dafabet | 2.95 | 3.70 | 2.13 |
| Marathonbet | 2.83 | 3.54 | 2.07 |
| Pinnacle | 2.95 | 3.79 | 2.15 |
| SBO | 2.69 | 3.29 | 2.02 |
| William Hill | 2.80 | 3.50 | 2.15 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .