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I Liga · Full time ·Matchday 10

Podbeskidzie vs Pogoń Siedlce

1 – 0 Full time

Stadion Miejski w Bielsku Bialej

Podbeskidzie 46%
Draw 27%
Pogoń Siedlce 27%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Podbeskidzie vs Pogoń Siedlce overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Podbeskidzie vs Pogoń Siedlce

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityPodbeskidzieDrawPogoń Siedlce
Model32.7%29.9%37.4%
Market50.5%25.6%23.9%
Final46.1%26.6%27.3%
Edge-17.8%+4.3%+13.5%

Confidence: Low

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Podbeskidzie ↓ / Pogoń Siedlce → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 10% 10% 1 9% 14% 8% 2 8% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 90%
2+ goals 72%
3+ goals 44%
No goals 10%

Podbeskidzie and Pogoń Siedlce expected goals

Podbeskidzie 1.18
Pogoń Siedlce 1.27

Total expected goals: 2.45

Podbeskidzie and Pogoń Siedlce attack and defence ratings

Podbeskidzie

Attack 0.87 -13%
Defence 1.05 +5%

Pogoń Siedlce

Attack 0.90 -10%
Defence 0.85 -15%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Podbeskidzie vs Pogoń Siedlce: result vs prediction

Podbeskidzie 1 – 0 Pogoń Siedlce

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 10 fixtures

I Liga

Before and after this match

Podbeskidzie vs Pogoń Siedlce markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Podbeskidzie 46.1% 2.17 -17.8% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 55.7% 1.80 — —
Both teams to score Yes 51.1% 1.96 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 73.4% 1.36 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 67.3% 1.49 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Podbeskidzie46.1%
Draw26.6%
Pogoń Siedlce27.3%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.544.3%
Under 2.555.7%
Both teams to scoreYes51.1%
No48.9%
Double chance1X (home or draw)72.7%
12 (either side)73.4%
X2 (draw or away)53.9%
Handicap -1Podbeskidzie win14.1%
Push (exactly one goal)18.6%
Loss67.3%
Correct score (top 3)1-114.2%
0-09.9%
0-19.7%

Podbeskidzie vs Pogoń Siedlce stats

Podbeskidzie and Pogoń Siedlce recent form

newest first
Podbeskidzie DDDLLD
Pogoń Siedlce WDWWLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Podbeskidzie and Pogoń Siedlce going into this match

league record before kick-off

Podbeskidzie record

  • They have won 0 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Pogoń Siedlce record

  • They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.

Podbeskidzie vs Pogoń Siedlce head-to-head

Last 2 meetings

1Podbeskidzie wins 0Draws 1Pogoń Siedlce wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2023-09-26Pogoń SiedlcePodbeskidzieCup1-3
2019-09-25Pogoń SiedlcePodbeskidzieCup1-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Podbeskidzie vs Pogoń Siedlce odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 50.5%, draw 25.6%, away 23.9%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.76 3.56 3.89
Bet365 1.80 3.30 3.80
BetVictor 1.80 3.50 3.90
Betano 1.80 3.65 3.95
Betfair 1.80 3.60 3.80
Dafabet 1.90 3.55 3.80
Marathonbet 1.74 3.56 3.80
Pinnacle 1.83 3.81 4.07
SBO 1.86 3.23 3.54
William Hill 1.83 3.40 3.70

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.80 ▲ +0.04
X 3.55 ▼ -0.05
2 3.80 ▼ -0.33

14 snapshots recorded, from .