Chrobry Głogów
vs
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Garuda Lions Prediction: Chrobry Głogów
1 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
Chrobry Głogów vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Chrobry Głogów vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
| Probability | Chrobry Głogów | Draw | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37.3% | 32.6% | 30.0% |
| Market | 42.3% | 27.5% | 30.2% |
| Final | 41.1% | 28.7% | 30.2% |
| Edge | -5.0% | +5.2% | -0.2% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.20, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Chrobry Głogów vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki match preview
Chrobry Głogów faces Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki in an I Liga matchup on October 10, 2026. The model gives Chrobry Głogów a 37% chance of winning, while Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki has a 30% likelihood, and a draw stands at 33%. The most probable scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Chrobry Głogów, with a 12% chance. Expected goals are 1.12 for Chrobry Głogów and 0.97 for Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki.
Recent form shows Chrobry Głogów with two draws, a win, and two losses in their last five matches, while Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki has two wins, two draws, and a loss. In their last two encounters, Chrobry Głogów has one win and one draw against Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki, who has yet to secure a victory in this matchup.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Chrobry Głogów and Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.09
Chrobry Głogów and Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki attack and defence ratings
Chrobry Głogów
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Podbeskidzie v Pogoń Siedlce — match page
- Arka Gdynia v Polonia Warszawa — match page
- Unia Skierniewice vs Nieciecza
- Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań
- ŁKS Łódź v Ruch Chorzów — match page
- Puszcza Niepołomice vs Polonia Bytom — team news & stats
- Odra Opole vs Miedz Legnica
- Stal Rzeszów vs Lechia Gdansk — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Chrobry Głogów vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Chrobry Głogów | 41.1% | 2.43 | -5.0% | 2.20 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 65.2% | 1.53 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 56.8% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.3% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 62.7% | 1.60 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Chrobry Głogów | 41.1% |
| Draw | 28.7% | |
| Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | 30.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 34.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 65.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43.2% |
| No | 56.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 69.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 58.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Chrobry Głogów win | 15.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.4% | |
| Loss | 62.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.8% |
| 0-0 | 13.7% | |
| 1-0 | 12.4% |
Chrobry Głogów vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki stats
Chrobry Głogów and Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki recent form
| Chrobry Głogów |
LDDWWL |
| Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki |
WLWLDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Chrobry Głogów and Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki season so far
Chrobry Głogów record
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 0.6 at home.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
- 62% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki record
- They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.4 at home.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Chrobry Głogów vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-07 | Chrobry Głogów | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | I Liga | 3-0 |
| 2025-08-23 | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | Chrobry Głogów | I Liga | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Chrobry Głogów vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 42.3%, draw 27.5%, away 30.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.13 | 3.28 | 3.02 |
| Bet365 | 2.10 | 3.30 | 2.90 |
| BetVictor | 2.15 | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| Betano | 2.20 | 3.30 | 3.10 |
| Betfair | 2.05 | 3.50 | 3.00 |
| Dafabet | 2.16 | 3.50 | 3.10 |
| Marathonbet | 2.11 | 3.28 | 2.95 |
| Pinnacle | 2.18 | 3.46 | 3.13 |
| SBO | 2.06 | 3.07 | 2.78 |
| William Hill | 2.15 | 3.20 | 3.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .