Unia Skierniewice
vs
Nieciecza
Garuda Lions Prediction: Nieciecza
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Unia Skierniewice vs Nieciecza overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Unia Skierniewice vs Nieciecza
| Probability | Unia Skierniewice | Draw | Nieciecza |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28.0% | 25.0% | 46.9% |
| Market | 36.7% | 25.8% | 37.5% |
| Final | 34.5% | 25.6% | 39.9% |
| Edge | -8.7% | -0.8% | +9.4% |
Why Nieciecza
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.81 vs 1.36.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Nieciecza below the model: +9.4 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.52, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Unia Skierniewice vs Nieciecza match preview
Unia Skierniewice faces Nieciecza in an I Liga matchup on October 10, 2026. The model indicates a 28% probability of a victory for Unia Skierniewice, while Nieciecza holds a stronger 47% chance of winning. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 9% probability of occurring. Both teams have shown attacking potential, with a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% probability that both teams will score.
Recent form highlights contrasting performances, as Unia Skierniewice has recorded a draw, a win, and three losses in their last six matches, while Nieciecza has been more consistent with four wins, a draw, and a loss. Expected goals suggest Unia Skierniewice at 1.36 and Nieciecza at 1.81, reflecting the latter's offensive edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Unia Skierniewice and Nieciecza expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.17
Unia Skierniewice and Nieciecza attack and defence ratings
Unia Skierniewice
Nieciecza
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Podbeskidzie v Pogoń Siedlce — match page
- Arka Gdynia v Polonia Warszawa — match page
- Chrobry Głogów vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki — team news & stats
- Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań
- ŁKS Łódź v Ruch Chorzów — match page
- Puszcza Niepołomice vs Polonia Bytom — team news & stats
- Odra Opole vs Miedz Legnica
- Stal Rzeszów vs Lechia Gdansk — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Unia Skierniewice vs Nieciecza markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nieciecza | 39.9% | 2.51 | +9.4% | 2.52 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.3% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.2% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.4% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 53.1% | 1.88 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Unia Skierniewice | 34.5% |
| Draw | 25.6% | |
| Nieciecza | 39.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 38.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.2% |
| No | 36.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 60.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 65.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Nieciecza win | 26.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.6% | |
| Loss | 53.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.4% |
| 1-2 | 9.3% | |
| 2-1 | 7.1% |
Unia Skierniewice vs Nieciecza stats
Unia Skierniewice and Nieciecza recent form
| Unia Skierniewice |
DWLLWL |
| Nieciecza |
WWWWDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Unia Skierniewice and Nieciecza season so far
Unia Skierniewice record
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
Nieciecza record
- They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Unia Skierniewice vs Nieciecza head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Unia Skierniewice vs Nieciecza odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 36.7%, draw 25.8%, away 37.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.38 | 3.52 | 2.42 |
| Bet365 | 2.45 | 3.40 | 2.40 |
| BetVictor | 2.45 | 3.60 | 2.45 |
| Betano | 2.52 | 3.50 | 2.52 |
| Betfair | 2.50 | 3.60 | 2.40 |
| Dafabet | 2.55 | 3.60 | 2.49 |
| Marathonbet | 2.38 | 3.52 | 2.42 |
| Pinnacle | 2.55 | 3.66 | 2.49 |
| SBO | 2.38 | 3.19 | 2.29 |
| William Hill | 2.50 | 3.30 | 2.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .