I Liga
·
Full time
·Matchday 10
Stal Mielec
vs
Warta Poznań
2 – 1 Full time
| 6′ | M. Cebula | ||
| 11′ | M. Cebula | ||
| 46′ | A. WolczekP. Kusztal | ||
| 46′ | B. LelitoK. Lepczynski | ||
| 57′ | M. StanekM. Smoczynski | ||
| 57′ | F. RejczykS. Steblecki | ||
| 62′ | E. ZiobronM. Wyparlo | ||
| 62′ | S. OureT. Gmur | ||
| 70′ | K. SzymanekK. Wybieralski | ||
| 72′ | J. Apolinarski | ||
| 75′ | M. CebulaM. Domanski | ||
| 75′ | K. CybulskiP. Kruszelnicki | ||
| 81′ | P. WlazloK. Koscielny |
Stal Mielec
32%
Draw
25%
Warta Poznań
43%
Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań
| Probability | Stal Mielec | Draw | Warta Poznań |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 25.2% | 21.5% | 53.2% |
| Market | 33.8% | 26.0% | 40.2% |
| Final | 31.7% | 24.9% | 43.4% |
| Edge | -2.1% | -1.1% | +3.3% |
Why Warta Poznań
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.27 vs 1.55.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Warta Poznań below our published probability: +3.3 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
97%
2+ goals
90%
3+ goals
74%
No goals
3%
Stal Mielec and Warta Poznań expected goals
Stal Mielec
1.55
Warta Poznań
2.27
Total expected goals: 3.82
Stal Mielec and Warta Poznań attack and defence ratings
Stal Mielec
Attack
1.10 +10%
Defence
1.57 +57%
Warta Poznań
Attack
1.07 +7%
Defence
0.89 -11%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań: result vs prediction
Stal Mielec 2 – 1 Warta Poznań
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Podbeskidzie v Pogoń Siedlce — match page
- Arka Gdynia v Polonia Warszawa — match page
- Chrobry Głogów vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki — team news & stats
- Unia Skierniewice vs Nieciecza
- ŁKS Łódź v Ruch Chorzów — match page
- Puszcza Niepołomice vs Polonia Bytom — team news & stats
- Odra Opole vs Miedz Legnica
- Stal Rzeszów vs Lechia Gdansk — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Warta Poznań | 43.4% | 2.30 | +3.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73.5% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71.4% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.1% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 46.8% | 2.14 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Stal Mielec | 31.7% |
| Draw | 24.9% | |
| Warta Poznań | 43.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 26.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71.4% |
| No | 28.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 56.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 68.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Warta Poznań win | 33.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.9% | |
| Loss | 46.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-2 | 8.8% |
| 1-1 | 8.5% | |
| 2-2 | 6.8% |
Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań stats
Stal Mielec and Warta Poznań recent form
| Stal Mielec |
LLDDLL |
| Warta Poznań |
WWLLWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Stal Mielec and Warta Poznań going into this match
Stal Mielec record
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Warta Poznań record
- They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
3Stal Mielec wins
3Draws
4Warta Poznań wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-22 | Warta Poznań | Stal Mielec | Ekstraklasa | 5-2 |
| 2023-10-23 | Stal Mielec | Warta Poznań | Ekstraklasa | 0-1 |
| 2023-05-27 | Stal Mielec | Warta Poznań | Ekstraklasa | 1-0 |
| 2022-11-11 | Warta Poznań | Stal Mielec | Ekstraklasa | 1-1 |
| 2022-04-16 | Stal Mielec | Warta Poznań | Ekstraklasa | 0-1 |
| 2021-10-24 | Warta Poznań | Stal Mielec | Ekstraklasa | 0-0 |
| 2021-04-10 | Warta Poznań | Stal Mielec | Ekstraklasa | 0-0 |
| 2020-11-07 | Stal Mielec | Warta Poznań | Ekstraklasa | 0-1 |
| 2019-11-17 | Warta Poznań | Stal Mielec | I Liga | 0-2 |
| 2019-07-26 | Stal Mielec | Warta Poznań | I Liga | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 33.8%, draw 26.0%, away 40.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.62 | 3.46 | 2.23 |
| Bet365 | 2.62 | 3.40 | 2.20 |
| BetVictor | 2.70 | 3.50 | 2.30 |
| Betano | 2.75 | 3.45 | 2.32 |
| Betfair | 2.70 | 3.60 | 2.20 |
| Dafabet | 2.75 | 3.55 | 2.33 |
| Marathonbet | 2.62 | 3.46 | 2.23 |
| Pinnacle | 2.82 | 3.75 | 2.34 |
| SBO | 2.58 | 3.23 | 2.21 |
| William Hill | 2.62 | 3.30 | 2.25 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
2.66 ▼ -0.06
X
3.46 ▼ -0.14
2
2.24 ▲ +0.04
13 snapshots recorded, from .