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I Liga · ·Matchday 10

Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań

Garuda Lions Prediction: Warta Poznań

1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability

Bet on Warta Poznań

Stadion Miejski przy Solskiego 1 w Mielcu, Mielec

Stal Mielec 32%
Draw 25%
Warta Poznań 43%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Chance Warta Poznań wins
43%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
97%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
71%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
1 – 2
9% of simulated outcomes

Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityStal MielecDrawWarta Poznań
Model25.5%21.6%52.9%
Market33.6%26.1%40.3%
Final31.6%25.0%43.5%
Edge-8.1%-4.5%+12.6%

Confidence: Low

Why Warta Poznań

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.26 vs 1.56.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Warta Poznań below the model: +12.6 percentage points of edge.

Best available price on the pick: 2.34, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.

Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań match preview

Stal Mielec faces Warta Poznań in their upcoming I Liga match, with the model assigning a 26% chance of victory for Stal Mielec, while Warta Poznań holds a 53% probability of winning. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, occurring at a rate of 9%. The expected goals indicate Stal Mielec at 1.56 and Warta Poznań at 2.26, suggesting a competitive encounter.

Recent form shows Stal Mielec struggling with a sequence of losses and draws, recording L-L-D-D-L-L. In contrast, Warta Poznań has shown more resilience, with a mixed record of W-W-L-L-W-L. The probabilities for over 2.5 goals stand at 73%, and both teams to score is at 71%, indicating a high likelihood of an action-packed match.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Stal Mielec ↓ / Warta Poznań → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 6% 1 8% 9% 7% 6% 2 6% 7% 5% 5% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 90%
3+ goals 73%
No goals 3%

Stal Mielec and Warta Poznań expected goals

Stal Mielec 1.56
Warta Poznań 2.26

Total expected goals: 3.82

Stal Mielec and Warta Poznań attack and defence ratings

Stal Mielec

Attack 1.10 +10%
Defence 1.58 +58%

Warta Poznań

Attack 1.07 +7%
Defence 0.89 -11%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Other Matchday 10 fixtures

I Liga

Before and after this match

Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Warta Poznań 43.5% 2.30 +12.6% 2.34
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 73.4% 1.36 — —
Both teams to score Yes 71.5% 1.40 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 75.0% 1.33 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 47.1% 2.12 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Stal Mielec31.6%
Draw25.0%
Warta Poznań43.5%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.573.4%
Under 2.526.6%
Both teams to scoreYes71.5%
No28.5%
Double chance1X (home or draw)56.5%
12 (either side)75.0%
X2 (draw or away)68.4%
Handicap -1Warta Poznań win33.0%
Push (exactly one goal)19.9%
Loss47.1%
Correct score (top 3)1-28.7%
1-18.5%
2-26.8%
Compare prices for this pick

Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań stats

Stal Mielec and Warta Poznań recent form

newest first
Stal Mielec LLDDLL
Warta Poznań WWLLWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Stal Mielec and Warta Poznań season so far

league record

Stal Mielec record

  • They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
  • 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Warta Poznań record

  • They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.

Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 33.6%, draw 26.1%, away 40.3%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.62 3.46 2.23
Bet365 2.70 3.30 2.25
BetVictor 2.70 3.60 2.25
Betano 2.75 3.50 2.32
Betfair 2.75 3.60 2.20
Dafabet 2.80 3.50 2.34
Marathonbet 2.62 3.46 2.23
Pinnacle 2.74 3.66 2.34
SBO 2.54 3.17 2.16
William Hill 2.62 3.30 2.25
Find the best place to bet

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.70 ▼ -0.02
X 3.48 ▼ -0.12
2 2.25 ▲ +0.04

10 snapshots recorded, from .

Prediction snapshot 2 Warta Poznań Predicted score 1 – 2 Low Bet Now
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