Nieciecza
vs
Puszcza Niepołomice
Garuda Lions Prediction: Nieciecza
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Nieciecza vs Puszcza Niepołomice overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Nieciecza vs Puszcza Niepołomice
| Probability | Nieciecza | Draw | Puszcza Niepołomice |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47.8% | 25.9% | 26.4% |
| Market | 52.1% | 24.6% | 23.3% |
| Final | 51.0% | 24.9% | 24.1% |
| Edge | -4.3% | +1.3% | +3.1% |
Why Nieciecza
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.73 vs 1.24.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.83, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Nieciecza vs Puszcza Niepołomice match preview
Nieciecza enters the match against Puszcza Niepołomice with a solid recent form, recording four wins and two draws in their last six matches. Their expected goals stand at 1.78, suggesting a strong offensive capability. In contrast, Puszcza Niepołomice has struggled recently, with three losses in their last six outings, and their expected goals are lower at 1.09.
According to our model, Nieciecza has a 52% probability of winning, while Puszcza Niepołomice has a 22% chance. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 2-1 in favor of Nieciecza, with a 10% likelihood. Additionally, there is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored, and both teams are expected to score with a probability of 56%.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Nieciecza and Puszcza Niepołomice expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.97
Nieciecza and Puszcza Niepołomice attack and defence ratings
Nieciecza
Puszcza Niepołomice
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Warta Poznań v Unia Skierniewice — match page
- Ruch Chorzów v Odra Opole — match page
- Miedz Legnica v Stal Mielec — match page
- Polonia Bytom vs Chrobry Głogów — team news & stats
- Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Polonia Warszawa
- ŁKS Łódź vs Podbeskidzie — team news & stats
- Pogoń Siedlce vs Stal Rzeszów
- Lechia Gdansk vs Arka Gdynia — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Nieciecza vs Puszcza Niepołomice markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nieciecza | 51.0% | 1.96 | -4.3% | 1.83 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.0% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.6% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.9% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.2% | 1.92 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nieciecza | 51.0% |
| Draw | 24.9% | |
| Puszcza Niepołomice | 24.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 43.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.6% |
| No | 40.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 49.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Nieciecza win | 26.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.4% | |
| Loss | 52.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.1% |
| 2-1 | 9.5% | |
| 1-0 | 7.8% |
Nieciecza vs Puszcza Niepołomice stats
Nieciecza and Puszcza Niepołomice recent form
| Nieciecza |
DWWWWD |
| Puszcza Niepołomice |
WLLLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Nieciecza and Puszcza Niepołomice season so far
Nieciecza record
- They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Puszcza Niepołomice record
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 9 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Nieciecza vs Puszcza Niepołomice head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Nieciecza vs Puszcza Niepołomice odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 52.0%, draw 24.6%, away 23.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.71 | 3.72 | 3.96 |
| Bet365 | 1.80 | 3.40 | 3.75 |
| BetVictor | 1.75 | 3.70 | 4.00 |
| Betano | 1.80 | 3.70 | 3.90 |
| Betfair | 1.70 | 3.75 | 4.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.83 | 3.60 | 3.90 |
| Marathonbet | 1.69 | 3.72 | 3.88 |
| Pinnacle | 1.79 | 3.86 | 3.95 |
| William Hill | 1.75 | 3.60 | 3.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .