Ekstraklasa
·
Full time
·Matchday 11
Wieczysta Kraków
vs
Raków Częstochowa
1 – 2 Full time
| 32′ | Bogdan Racovitan | ||
| 56′ | Stratos Svarnas | ||
| 59′ | José Antonio de la Rosa GarridoLisandro Semedo | ||
| 62′ | Isak BrusbergLamine Diaby Fadiga | ||
| 62′ | Tomasz PienkoJean Carlos | ||
| 63′ | Duje Dujmovic | ||
| 65′ | Antonio Milic | ||
| 67′ | Kamil Pestka | ||
| 69′ | Lisandro Semedo | ||
| 79′ | Lamine Diaby Fadiga | ||
| 79′ | Kamil PestkaMatúš Vojtko | ||
| 79′ | Efthymios KoulourisChristophe Lungoyi | ||
| 87′ | Mahir EmreliAdam Basse | ||
| 87′ | Lucas PiazónBartosz Bialek | ||
| 87′ | Karol FilaKamil Dankowski | ||
| 88′ | Lamine Diaby Fadiga | ||
| 90′ | Erick OtienoNils Zätterström | ||
| 90′ | Patryk MakuchArvid Brorsson |
Wieczysta Kraków
50%
Draw
23%
Raków Częstochowa
28%
Match stats
| 14 | Shots | 23 |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Shots on target | 13 |
| 48 | Possession % | 52 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Offsides | 2 |
| 11 | Saves | 2 |
| 457 | Accurate passes | 402 |
Wieczysta Kraków vs Raków Częstochowa overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Wieczysta Kraków vs Raków Częstochowa
| Probability | Wieczysta Kraków | Draw | Raków Częstochowa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 61.7% | 18.8% | 19.5% |
| Market | 45.7% | 24.1% | 30.2% |
| Final | 49.7% | 22.8% | 27.5% |
| Edge | +4.0% | -1.3% | -2.7% |
Why Wieczysta Kraków
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.66 vs 1.50.
- The market prices Wieczysta Kraków below our published probability: +4.0 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
98%
2+ goals
93%
3+ goals
78%
No goals
2%
Wieczysta Kraków and Raków Częstochowa expected goals
Wieczysta Kraków
2.66
Raków Częstochowa
1.50
Total expected goals: 4.16
Wieczysta Kraków and Raków Częstochowa attack and defence ratings
Wieczysta Kraków
Attack
1.12 +12%
Defence
1.20 +20%
Raków Częstochowa
Attack
1.03 +3%
Defence
1.50 +50%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Wieczysta Kraków vs Raków Częstochowa: result vs prediction
Wieczysta Kraków 1 – 2 Raków Częstochowa
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Widzew Łódź vs Wisla Krakow
- Motor Lublin v Slask Wroclaw — match page
- GKS Katowice vs Pogon Szczecin — team news & stats
- Cracovia Krakow v Legia Warszawa — match page
- Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice
- Zaglebie Lubin vs Jagiellonia — team news & stats
- Lech Poznan vs Korona Kielce
- Wisla Plock v Radomiak Radom — match page
Before and after this match
Wieczysta Kraków vs Raków Częstochowa markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Wieczysta Kraków | 49.7% | 2.01 | +4.0% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 78.5% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72.9% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 77.2% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Wieczysta Kraków win | 42.1% | 2.38 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Wieczysta Kraków | 49.7% |
| Draw | 22.8% | |
| Raków Częstochowa | 27.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 78.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 21.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72.9% |
| No | 27.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 50.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Wieczysta Kraków win | 42.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.6% | |
| Loss | 38.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 8.3% |
| 3-1 | 7.3% | |
| 1-1 | 6.8% |
Wieczysta Kraków vs Raków Częstochowa stats
Wieczysta Kraków and Raków Częstochowa recent form
| Wieczysta Kraków |
LWDLDL |
| Raków Częstochowa |
LLLWLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Wieczysta Kraków and Raków Częstochowa going into this match
Wieczysta Kraków record
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
Raków Częstochowa record
- They have won 1 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Wieczysta Kraków vs Raków Częstochowa head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Wieczysta Kraków vs Raków Częstochowa odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 45.7%, draw 24.1%, away 30.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.03 | 3.84 | 3.06 |
| Bet365 | 2.00 | 3.60 | 3.10 |
| BetVictor | 2.00 | 3.75 | 3.00 |
| Betano | 2.10 | 3.75 | 3.05 |
| Betfair | 2.00 | 3.90 | 3.10 |
| Dafabet | 2.10 | 3.85 | 3.15 |
| Marathonbet | 2.01 | 3.84 | 3.05 |
| Pinnacle | 2.05 | 4.14 | 3.21 |
| SBO | 2.02 | 3.43 | 2.92 |
| William Hill | 2.00 | 3.80 | 3.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
2.01 ▼ -0.32
X
3.82 ▲ +0.17
2
3.05 ▲ +0.43
13 snapshots recorded, from .